91 Comments

All the possibilities in the West are spelled out in this article. No need for colorful [incomprehensible] charts.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/36069090/nba-playoff-schedule-highlights-2023

But only 4 games have a bearing on the final standings in the West - NO@Minny, jazz@Lakers, Clippers@PHX and Dubs@Portland.

Expand full comment
Apr 9, 2023·edited Apr 9, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

Kevon with b2b 82 game seasons is insane. Remember when this guy was an injury-riddled prospect whose hips capped his ceiling?

Expand full comment

I remember Bob Myers not being aware that Looney had hurt his hip. That didn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling on draft day.

Expand full comment

I think you are misremembering. My recollection is that the only reason Looney fell to the 30th pick was that everybody was concerned about his hip injury. Myers and the Warriors took a chance that paid off.

Expand full comment

Doubt it. I remember the interview post-draft ... somebody asked Bob about it, and he said that he wasn't aware of it, but the medical staff would deal with it.

Expand full comment
Apr 9, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

You are right. I think I'm remembering the 'degenerative back' comment from this interview.

Your google-fu is strong.

Expand full comment
author

It is super interesting to look back on that. In short, they bet on him recovering from injury to be a “skilled” big (driving, shooting). As it turned out, he had a whole complex of injuries and he ended up instead becoming one of the great “unskilled” bigs.

Expand full comment

So annoying that “skill” is attributed almost solely to offense (not you, just the way it is). It’s offensive, in fact :p

Expand full comment

I noticed that all the East games are at the same time, and the West games are at the same time for this last day.

I assume they are taking a page out of the World Cup book, and trying to minimize opportunities for teams to throw the game to get a favorable matchup in the playoffs.

When did that come in? I have vague memories of marathon last days of the regular season in years gone by.

Expand full comment

They have been doing this for a few years at least so teams don't get to pick and choose seating.

Expand full comment

So no Dame or GP2 for Portland today? Yeah we got this.

Expand full comment

Or Durant — they picked Oden, who is also unavailable today.

Expand full comment

Or Brandon Roy.

Expand full comment

That could be a problem.

Expand full comment

Ok so clippers pay the suns tmrw who have nothing to play for. Clips also need to win to avoid play in bc if they lose and we and pets both win, they're 7th. We likewise need to win to avoid play in bc we somehow have no tie breaks. So unless something crazy happens tomorrow, we should be facing the kings in round one. I can handle that

Expand full comment

Q. Is it just me or do the vets look a bit tired, not moving in the tornado style of old, missing a step here, a back cut there, showing some age. To be clear, I'm not saying they are over the hill. What I am saying is this: when we are dealing with the top 400+ players in the world in the NBA, we are dealing with athletes playing on the edge of a knife. Draymond threw a backcut pass to Curry that bounced out of bounds as Curry opted not to make the cut, a cut that is textbook Dubs B-ball. I know it's the end of the season, but I have never seen Curry and Klay move as little on the court ever. I would love to see there avg miles run per/36 compared to prior years. The point being, I think Kerr is going to have to tweak the game plan moving forward. I don't think this team can play pedal to the metal for 48 minutes. I think they are going to have to learn to play in a lower gear for portions of the game so these guys have legs to close. The number of games we have lost in the late 4th quarter this year may be an indication of older legs. Obviously, we have missed the boat this season, and I will be watching the following: turnovers caused by pushing the pace too fast, bad shot selection as a product of a hurried pace, offense getting bogged down as player movement gets sluggish , late 4th quarter energy. On top of this, all our guards need to contend with gang rebounding because of our shortage of bigs. Are we going to face an energy crisis in the Offs? I'm a little nervous.

Expand full comment

My observations, also. Also, Steph seems to be losing his dribble more this year.

Expand full comment

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/speed-distance?Season=2021-22&dir=D&sort=DIST_MILES

Steph is moving more this year than last year.

Expand full comment

That is cool. The stats available these days are pretty incredible. Having said that, is there any resource that splits it to offense vs defense? Just curious because some players ahead of Steph were a bit unexpected to me. But then I thought, maybe they run around on defense a lot more than Steph. Not really related to the tired factor, but would be interesting if that breakdown is available.

Expand full comment

wow. tx for that. hmmm. may have to reevaluate my dumb ass opinion. lol

Expand full comment

Nah, I think both things can be true. I think the vets are a little worn down from shouldering a heavier than anticipated load with Wiggins’ extended absence. Hoping the ~week off assuming we beat Portland plus the focus of being in the postseason gives them a boost.

Expand full comment

We are getting Wiggins back for the playoffs. Will he start? I seriously doubt it unless Kerr feels he is in game shape. Otherwise, he comes off the bench. Not a bad weapon off the bench giving our team added defense and scoring. This also brings to mind Iggy. Will he play? If not, we'll be seeing a lot more of Lamb, methinks.

Expand full comment

Iggy is done. Broken wrist won’t heal in time for him to play.

Wiggy, though, is almost back. I expect him to come off the bench in round 1, then start in the second round. Just like Steph last year.

Expand full comment

I believe Iggy has a chance of playing in the Finals, if we get that far. I think the rounds up to and including the WCF are out.

Expand full comment

I'd be shocked if Wiggins didn't start (assuming Dubs aren't in the play-in). They'll have several more days for conditioning and training before he has to take the floor. Hard to ignore that +21.9 rating for their normal starting rotation.

Expand full comment

Do you think our training facilities and staff specifically contribute to recovering players proving their worth with us?

Expand full comment

What's better than having one GP2 on the roster? Having two GP2s on the roster. Need the Warriors to get (National DPOY) Jaylen Clark on a two-way contract next season:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_P4XwLXQ04

Think there's a chance he doesn't get drafted because he suffered an Achilles injury late in the season that might have been a tear (UCLA never specified, just said he was out). Which is concerning, but also might make him available as a UDFA. A lot of teams might not have a place for a player who can't create his own shot or shoot very well, but the Warriors are not one of those teams.

Expand full comment
author

Yeah I think the one I posted is his video too, he does a great job.

Not sure I agree about the "athletic limitations" point he made though, I guess he is strictly talking about vertical athleticism? But even then, Clark had 17 dunks last season and has stuff like this on film. 0 dunks in the halfcourt is an interesting point though:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBca4Uzq3JU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GoKll4yaUg

One thing that stood out to me about Haliburton (10.7) and Franz Wagner (10.6) was their elite BPM stat in the season before they came out of college as non-7 footers, and Clark (10.6) has that as well.

I will certainly be repeating this propaganda closer to draft time.

Expand full comment
Apr 9, 2023·edited Apr 9, 2023

I would even use an early second rounder on him. Those give you random results anyways. He could be a bigger GP2 if we help him recover and train him.

Expand full comment

Warriors don't have a second rounder so it'd have to be UDFA

Expand full comment

And his shooting mechanics can be worked on… we’ll see how it shakes out. I could see him on a 2 way or something…

Expand full comment

Nice call.

Expand full comment

Question about salaries. If Andrew Wiggins took 9 million less than he could have, and let’s pretend Draymond takes 9 million less than he could have, then that’s $18 million less than expected to pay salaries next year. Assuming that Joe Lacob is willing to keep paying so much money for talent, could some of that saved $18 million be used to pay DDV next year?

Expand full comment

Draymond could walk and Wiggins could be traded for only draft picks and they still wouldn’t be able to pay Donte.

Expand full comment

Explain, please........

Expand full comment
Apr 9, 2023·edited Apr 9, 2023

Currently the Dubs players under contract (including Draymond) for next year make them about 78M over the projected cap. Let's say they want to offer DDV 10M, that means they need to be 10M under the cap. So to sign DDV to a 10m contract, they need to first shed 88M worth of salary without taking any contracts back. Not only is this effectively impossible, but obviously DDV is not worth the 88m of existing players they need to give up.

If DDV had been on the team long enough, he would eventually get full bird rights which would mean the Warriors could essentially ignore the cap when re-signing him. This is how the dubs have been able to keep all their core players in the past to get to this point of being so far over the cap.

Edit: another important note, because related questions often come up, is that in the NBA you cannot restructure your contract for cap benefit. Next year, Klay is making $43M. Unless traded, there's nothing Klay or the Warriors can do to reduce this amount on the cap. Klay could say, hey I'll take a $20m paycut to free up money to pay someone else. No, this is not possible. If he is on the team (or even if he is released), he is going to be $43m against the cap.

Expand full comment

How long?

Expand full comment

After 1 year (so anyone) you can offer 10% raise I believe.

After 2 years, I think you can offer the average NBA salary or something like that. I think currently in the range of 10m/year (this is the mechanism dubs could have used to keep GP2)

After 3 years, they have full bird rights and can be offered anything.

So for DDV to stay, the selling point would be: opt in this year to the 5M or whatever it is. Next year we can give you 10+. Year after that we can do anything. Obviously you can't guarantee any of that though, so most likely another team under the cap is going to be able to make an offer to him that is going to be a lot more financially beneficial to him.

Expand full comment

Well GPII made the choice for more money and look what happened to him.

So DDV could opt for the ?6.5 M +10% raise next fall, then expect the $10M+ the following fall. I could accept hat.

Expand full comment

Thanks.

Expand full comment
deletedApr 9, 2023·edited Apr 9, 2023
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

And even without Dray or Wiggins, we still already have $150M in salaries, well above the $134M salary cap. Cannot sign free agents to anything more than min salary

Expand full comment

Oh, now I understand.

Expand full comment

So Lacob has no say how he spends his $ allotted to salary?

Expand full comment

Just let him sign elsewhere, and then trade Poole for him at the deadline like we did with Wiseman/GP2.

Expand full comment

New, somewhat less confusing 16-row table of possible NBA playoff seedings after the results of today's games: https://twitter.com/NBAPR/status/1644868977674297344

Expand full comment
Apr 9, 2023·edited Apr 9, 2023

Let's assume GSW and Lakers win because they need to and their opponents don't; then there are only 4 outcomes, we are 5th or 6th. And only 5th if Clips purposely lose, which they can only do if MIN is absolutely blowing out NOP... and they trust the stated assumptions of GSW/Lakers winning.

I'd say 90% chance it ends 5th LAC, 6th GSW, 7th LAL.

Cons: We'll have to eliminate our Norcal buddies. Round 2 could get violent with Grizzlies.

Pros: No play-in!!! We get to watch at least 1 desperate Lakers Play-in. We'll only have to face 1 of Nuggets/Suns/Clippers. We'll only have to face 2 of Nuggets/Suns/Grizzlies/Clippers/Lakers.

Expand full comment

Hey I'm glad to see the Suns are all out against the Clippers, it means they'd rather play the Clippers than play GSW. *No one wants to face us*

Expand full comment

We will crush Phoenix. They know it. GPII annoys CP3 more than CP3 annoys the rest of us; Wiggins handles Booker; Draymond bodies KD; Loon manages Ayton. Meanwhile, Steph, Klay, DDV, Poole.

Expand full comment

Pretty sure Ayton and their backup center are both currently out injured, so it could be even more favorable than you've suggested. Though injuries this time of the regular season tend to heal pretty miraculously come playoff time.

Expand full comment

The great thing here is that, should the Clips try and play with the Bball Gods and lose to get the 6 seed, there is a 50% chance they slide to 7 and the Play In. You have to believe they will opt for a win and the 5 seed rather than risk having to play in and end up playing Mem or Den. For as bad as the Dubs have played this year, to squeak into the 7 against Sac would be a miracle end to the regular season.

Expand full comment

Great Read - thank you!

I also love DDV - jack-of-many-traits that allows him to fit perfectly with the high level individual talents we have

Expand full comment
Apr 9, 2023·edited Apr 9, 2023

What a finish in the WEST. If the Grizz beat the Thunder, and the Kings beat the Nuggets, we have a tie for 1st place on the 82nd game of the season for both. Don't know who owns the tiebreaker in those lofty heights, as I have been too focused on 6th and 3rd seed for nearly a month......

Expand full comment

Denver has #1 clinched.

Expand full comment

Thank you, Sleeper...too bad...would have been some REAL EXTRA DRAMA....LOL

Expand full comment

By the way, you were right about DDV and defense, when I was lamenting replacing loss of GPII. DDV has game. Only better thing that could have happened is ...getting GPII, also, the same season....who would have bet on THAT happening....lol

Expand full comment

So, we lost GPII, DAMION-45 percent 3s, and JTA. We got DDV and GPII to replace them....THAT IS A NET GAIN...lol

Still hurting up front, but, till we get to the FINAL, we may be fine...methinks BUCKS will be there if all healthy...

Expand full comment

And just think where we'd be if we had Little Mac :)

He's now played in 3 NBA games - one for the Sixers, one for the Lakers, and one for the Bulls. Guessing he gets some minutes for the Sixers tomorrow.

Expand full comment

As I have long-held, Lil MAC IS A BALLER...Just needs a break/right team...

-Lil MAC got to play-START his 1st game for Philly, barely missing 3dbl, 20/9/9, in 33 mins PT, AND a team-leading +29..

*****Despite Cam Thomas' 46 points (16-29 FG) and six 3PM, the Nets fall to the 76ers, 134-105. Mac McClung (career-high 20 points, nine rebounds, nine assists) and Shake Milton (20 points, eight assists) combined for 40 points for the 76ers in the victory. The 76ers finish the season at 54-28, while the Nets finish 45-37. ****

Expand full comment
Apr 9, 2023·edited Apr 9, 2023

Sure hope he gets some PT/not all teams the same; he has been on the road forever, and, done it everywhere. He is another one of those guys that plays BIG with zero TOs. A few minutes of his energized/impactful-penetration-playmaking/scoring and we'd probably have won a couple of road losses and have clinched 1-6...Dude is a gamechanger...

Expand full comment
Apr 9, 2023·edited Apr 9, 2023

I got to love DDV as the season progressed. Never understood why the Bucks didn't hang with him; I guess it helps having 2 7 footers that make 3s....

OK, Daniel, the deal is in.

-DUBS ARE ARE SEEING THE FINISH LINE, BUT GOT 2 GUYS ONE STEP BEHIND THEM.

-ON THE LAST DAY, AND THE LAST GAME OF THE 2022-2023 SEASON FOR THE DUBS/NBA, 6TH IS THEIRS TO KEEP.

-IF THEY FALTER, EITHER ONE, OR, BOTH, OF THE GUYS HANGING BEHIND THEM WILL BEAT THEM.

-LOLAKERS WILL PLAY TO WIN. PELS OWN MINNESOTA, SO, THEY MAY HAVE AN EASY GO ALSO.

-NEVER THOUGHT IT WOULD HAPPEN THIS WAY WHEN I SAID IT WILL GO DOWN THE WIRE FOR 6th.

-NEVER SAY NEVER...LOL

IF, THE DUBS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, YES, IT IS ABOUT THE ''CORE'', THE ''CORE'', AND, ALWAYS, THE ''DYNASTIC CORE''...HOMEGROWN.

Expand full comment
Apr 9, 2023·edited Apr 9, 2023

Don't sweat it tomorrow. Dubs want to win and Blazers don't (and will be on the second of a B2B). Pacers and Magic each have one more win than Blazers so expect them to do everything they can to lose. Expecting a game similar to the game against the Kings - get off to a fast start, get careless while the lead dwindles, and then pull away.

Expand full comment

Sure hope so...another road game; hope the right team shows up.

Expand full comment

Kevin Knox has to sit for them… he’s been playing too well. Sharpe too

Expand full comment

I really liked DDV in Milwaukee pre injury

I thought he was far more productive than Connaughton or Grayson Allen, only two steps less than Jrue.

I was very very happy when we got Nemanja Bjelica in 2021 summer and the same when we got DDV in 2022

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Thanks for the early morning smile this brought to me.

Expand full comment

That franchise is dropping fast. Last year they played in the WCF. This year, they jettisoned two of their best players, DFS and Dinwiddie, to get Kyrie Irving for a couple dozen games. Kyrie will sign somewhere else and then Luka will demand a trade. Enjoy the lottery!

Expand full comment

Last year was a fluke and they got worse.

Expand full comment
Apr 9, 2023Liked by Eric Apricot

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure there were at least some knee jerk comments here this year about how the Mavs were a shining example of a contender making moves to get better, while the inept Bob & Co sat on their hands and don't care about winning. I think it's safe to say Bob, Lacob, Kerr, Curry, et all care about winning, but it is natural to have differing opinions on what will lead to that. Maybe trading every asset you have for a questionable journeyman is the best option. Maybe trying to develop the draft talent you have is best. There's no clear cut answer, but I would challenge anyone skeptical of current management -- how many (if any) organizations over the last 10 years have proven to have more success with their decisions?

Expand full comment

Is it because Jason Kidd said that Nico Harrison and Mark Cuban told him to lose the game on purpose?

Expand full comment

I know the popular answer will be yes, but I think the NBA would have investigated regardless.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Question authority.

Expand full comment

You love to see it.

Expand full comment