DNHQ Draft Tourney Semifinal Group 1: Dillon Jones, Jaylin Williams, Cam Spencer, Jalen Bridges; plus open thread
Jones, Williams and Bridges have had GSW workouts
Our Draft Tournament
Yes, we are having our FIFTH annual DNHQ Draft Tournament, where Dub Nation gets to vote on whom the Warriors should draft via head to head showdowns.
If the Warriors end up trading the pick, I’ll end the draft tournament early. If the Warriors somehow trade up, I’ll somehow re-fashion the Tourney.
Overall results and how we chose the field at 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament. Past Draft Tourneys archived here.
Don’t be a party pooper and say the Warriors should trade the pick or that it doesn’t matter.
Micro Update:
void’s Big Board Vote Site
Super commenter void has made (again) a web app where you can record your Big Board for our limited pool of “Might Fall To #52” Tourney participants.
I particularly like this site, because you can put your money where your mouth is. So when you start bragging about how all your draft picks were better than the dumb Warriors pick, people can check. For instance, you can look at all my draft picks from since 2021, from brilliant to horribly misguided.
void’s DNHQ Big Board Vote Site
DNHQ Draft Tournament Second Round
Now it’s time for the winners of the first group stage to have a showdown. Every one of these players except Cam Spencer has had a pre-draft workout for the Warriors, so they are legitimate possibilities for the Warriors the draft or invite for a two-way or at least to join their Summer League team.
Group A
Hunter Sallis 2%
Dillon Jones 56% WINNER
Jaedon LeDee 18%
Anton Watson 24%
Unusual results, as Sallis was the highest rated prospect here, but as it turns out, Sallis withdrew from the draft, so it all worked out.
LeDee is in the mold of a big 3-and-D wing, but his 3P% was on very low volume (42 3PA) and it’s too theoretical for my taste. Watson is in the same boat. He and LeDee were highly productive college players, but GSW just can’t play more 3s and 4s who aren’t proven to shoot threes well.
Dillon Jones is a talent but his game feels like Kuminga’s game with zero dunks. I just have concerns how much he can get in the NBA by bullying people with his size and force. His jump shot is not useable yet. But maybe if he’s played as a point guard and defended by smaller point guards, his game can work. he does have a really high Assist Rate (which statistically tends to translate to the NBA) and FT rate (also translates, but a lot less so). My vote goes to Dillon Jones.
Group B
Baylor Scheierman 57% - disqualified for being too awesome
KJ Simpson 11%
Dylan Disu 1%
Jaylin Williams 31% WINNER
Baylor’s stock has rocketed so high that he’s not likely to even fall to the second round, much less the bottom. So I’m declaring the second place finisher, Williams, the winner.
My own vote goes to Williams. Simpson is talented but… I know this sounds reductive but he’s just too short to be a good bet to succeed.
Disu and Williams are vying for top dog in the 3-and-D wing category, and are pretty close statistically. Stats-wise Disu is a slightly better defender. He has a bigger portion of his shot diet in midrange jumpers, which in theory could be good because the new inefficiency is exploiting the midrange shot that contemporary defenses give up (see Brunson, Jalen). But his midranges aren’t that effective statistically (hence why Williams has better scoring efficiency). Williams doesn’t shoot nearly as much from that range. And Williams just looks a little bouncier, and GSW needs bounce.
Group C
Tristen Newton 3%
Reece Beekman 12%
Jonathan Mogbo 14%
Cam Spencer 71% WINNER
Beekman was a super productive college player, but he’s just too small and slight. He was bullied against Duke’s bigger and more athletic players. Mogbo plays in a higher gear than most players and I always enjoy a good eager passer. But he has really no touch on any shot outside a dunk and I don’t think that’s what GSW needs right now.
Which leaves us with Newton and Spencer, two great glue guys from the national champion UConn team. Two guys that have questions about whether they are athletic enough to guard or score in the NBA. Newton has a great Assist Rate, but he was passing to a starting lineup of all future NBA players. His shooting is not good, despite his MVP performance in the Tournament.
Cam Spencer is my pick. He statistically pops as an absolutely elite college shooter at career numbers of 41.9% 3P, 87.8% FT… that’s CAREER. His last year was even more eye popping: 91.1% FT, 44.0% 3P, even 53.9% from 2P. Statistically his offense is a lot better and even his defense is better than Newton’s. He’s a scrappy player, though he doesn’t have Podziemski’s insane rebounding which helped Podz stay on the court while his shot was malfunctioning. So it’s not clear to me what Spencer will be if he’s not drilling shots, and whether he can really defend at the NBA level. If he’s a better shooting Pat Spencer, that might not be enough to keep him on the court. Nonetheless, when you’re picking in the 50s, all the prospects are long shots, and Cam Spencer at least has one thing that he’s elite at that he can build his game around.
Group D
Antonio Reeves 24%
Jalen Bridges 66% WINNER
Isaiah Crawford 6%
Isaac Jones 5%
Okay, you know it’s not a fix because my guy Antonio Reeves didn’t win this group, not even close. The dream of Reeves is that he’s a spark plug scorer who can create off the dribble, make creative finishes, and light it up from three; that he was held back by playing a role on a stacked disorganized Kentucky team and still managed to be a leading scorer; he played off-ball a lot at UK but in his previous schools he was successful at creating on-ball. The bad scenario is that he’s bad Jordan Poole who’s a black hole on offense and a matador on defense.
But I get it. If Bridges’s senior year 41.7% 3P is real (and the career 79.6% FT is encouraging), then he might be the legendary big wing 3-and-D guy that returns spacing and athleticism to GSW lineups. He’s not just a guy to sit in the corner, he’ll handle the ball in the pick and roll, go between the legs, and pull up for 3 in your face.
Crawford’s another 3-and-D mold wing and he’s racked up strong Block/Steal rates compared to Bridges. But he looks less fluid on offense and he played against weaker opposition.
Jones is a smallball center who is very resourceful in his scoring, but ultimately it’s hard to take a guy who has no three point shot (6-32 career) and whose defense is merely good not great statistically.
Dillon Jones
Forward, 6-6, 235lb
BPM #69
PRPG #24
Givony Woo ESPN 5-31 #49
SI 5-16 #35
Vecenie 6-5 #56
Wasserman 6-13 #40
Yahoo 6-17 #35
Why does BPM love him?
Sky-high Assist Rate and Defensive Rebounding Rate, lots of Steals, 84.5% FT% lead to an above-average TS% on heavy usage.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a four-year player who plays in a minor NCAA conference.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Evan Turner 2010
Ayo Dosunmu 2021
Draymond Green 2012
Side Note: my favorite scouting videos are from Cashiggy, who shows all the bad plays too. I included two for Dillon Jones. But I can’t find them for every player. So don’t be biased if only some players have videos showing their flaws...
Sam Vecenie, NY Times
Dillon Jones is one of the statistical darlings of the class, a productive player who averaged nearly 20 points, nine rebounds and five assists per game in the Big Sky for Weber State. He’s undersized as a wing at 6-foot-5, but makes up for it with his 6-foot-11 wingspan. Defensively, I have some questions about his lateral ability at 235 pounds and he doesn’t have the vertical athleticism you’d hope for in a prospect who also has shooting questions. But if you want to bet on production, he’s your guy.
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
SHADES OF
Grant Williams Crossed With Julius Randle
Clutch Gene
Tank
Float Game
Rebounding
PLUSES
At 6-foot-6 and over 230 pounds, Jones doesn’t look like a typical primary shot creator, but he’s shifty and has a tight handle and good passing vision. He’s decisive off the bounce, finding cutters and spot-up shooters with speedy bull’s-eye passes.
Creative ball handler who uses his body to his advantage. He primarily scores at the rim and is a relentless downhill attacker who blends power and finesse to finish through contact with a soft touch. He also likes to lean into defenders to create space for effortless midrange pull-ups, and he possesses the touch and confidence to make them even when they’re heavily contested.
Overpowers smaller players on post-ups. He could be a mismatch killer at the next level, particularly in on-ball screening actions since he can short roll and score, make plays, or go into a post-up.
There are encouraging signs that he’ll be able to figure it out as a spot-up shooter. He is an 80-plus percent shooter from the line in his college career and has a feathery-soft touch from floater range.
Excellent rebounder with a nose for the ball. With his handling ability, he can turn defensive boards into instant offense. He makes a similar defensive impact in the passing lanes, looking for deflections and steals.
MINUSES
Sluggish on-ball defender who needs to improve his lateral quickness to stay in front of quicker guards and wings.
Below-the-rim athlete who rarely dunks or blocks shots at the rim, which hurts his chances of operating as a small-ball center.
Looks uncomfortable as a shooter from deeper ranges, as if he’s not generating enough power from his lower body and instead has to hoist the ball with his arms. Changes to his shot mechanics, and possibly losing weight, will be necessary to help him extend his range.
Wasserman, NBA.com
Previous mock draft spot: No. 34
Team: Weber State
Position: SF
Size: 6-foot-6, 235 lbs
Age/Year: 22, Junior
Nationality: American
Pro comparison: Tosan Evbuomwan
The only NCAA player on record to average at least 20 points, nine rebounds, five assists and a 3-pointer, Dillon Jones has scouts divided on his historic production and unusual fit/position for the NBA. Teams are asking whether he’ll be a useful creator on the ball and if he offers any value playing off it.
There figures to be one team willing to take a chance earlier than others. At 6’6″, 235 pounds, his ball-handling, live-dribble passing, finishing, improving touch and capable shot ultimately create tempting versatility.
(May 21 Update)
May 12 Mock Draft Spot: No. 34
School/Team: Weber State
Position: SF
Age/Year: 22, Junior
Size: 6'5", 237 lbs
Nationality: American
Pro comparison: David Roddy
Ball-dominant at Weber State, Dillon Jones had trouble standing out in a different role at the NBA combine. On the bright side, he improved his athletic-test results across the board since last year, specifically his foot-speed times and vertical jumps.
The first round feels farfetched, but he should get looks in the 30s and 40s from teams drawn to his unique versatility as a 237-pound playmaker, excellent rebounder and improved shooter.
Jaylin Williams
Forward, 6-8, 230lb
BPM #19
PRPG #155
TheAthletic 4-19 #98
Why does BPM love him?
Great scoring efficiency (EFG, TS%) and Offensive Rating at average usage. Doesn’t turn the ball over, above average shooting on FT, 2FG and 3FG. DBPM loves his defense, but I’m not sure precisely why.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a five-year player.
His 3P% spiked in senior year, is it real?
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Eric Paschall 2018
Aaron White 2014
Obi Toppin 2019
SI.com
A former top 100 recruit, Williams has experienced an interesting college career. After a breakout sophomore campaign, he saw a reduced role as a junior off the bench. However, he had another resurgence last season as a senior in what was a a career year. As a starter in year four, he averaged a career-best 11.4 points per game, 4.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists while shooting 35.4% from deep. The ability to stay composed throughout the ups and downs over the past few years is impressive and Williams' improvement is overall positive.
He’s an underrated positional passer and a smart player, producing 74 assists to only 39 turnovers last season. He’s a decent rebounder for a forward, but could be better cleaning the glass. Leveraging his high IQ and ability to be a high floor, connecting piece should be attractive to NBA teams.
The 3-point shot has been inconsistent over the past four years, but we’ve seen enough to feel optimistic about it translating to the NBA. Over his four year career, Williams knocked down 33% of his triples. He is also a quality free throw shooter which is another reason to believe in the jumper, converting on nearly 75% of his free throws in his college career.
A 6-foot-8 with the ability to do a bit of everything, he projects to be a quality role player at the next level. While at Auburn, Williams has played alongside numerous NBA talents. He’s filled multiple roles and has showcased versatility and the ability to adapt to what the team needs. His skillset and ability to slot into many different types of lineups makes him an easier fit on nearly any team relative to other second-round talents.
There’s no guarantee he’s selected in the 2024 NBA Draft, but Williams does have what it takes to make it in the league. He's the type of prospect that will need to have a great pre-draft process meeting and working out with teams.
Draft Projection: Potential Second-Round Pick in 2024 NBA Draft.
Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more
Rowan Kent, No Ceilings
Sometimes a player slips through the cracks of the draft for good reasons. Sometimes, however, a prospect like Jaylin Williams deserves much more hype than he's received so far.
… a lot more in the original linked article …
If you’ve been watching SEC basketball in the 2020s, you’ve probably watched Jaylin Williams at least a few times. Williams came to Auburn not as a consensus Top 100 recruit but as the fourth-highest-ranked player in all of Georgia. He played sparingly as a freshman before watching his role fluctuate as a sophomore and junior.
After starting almost every game alongside Sharife Cooper, Allen Flannigan, and JT Thor, Williams accepted a bench role with the arrival of Jabari Smith. Instead of transferring out for greener pastures, Williams bought into the change, which reduced his counting stats and minutes. As a senior, having watched both Smith and Walker Kessler head to the NBA, Williams reclaimed his starting spot and kept a stranglehold on it as a senior and graduate student.
It’s a testament to who Williams is as a person and a player that he accepted his smaller role. In the era of transfers and transactions, it’s easy to hear the siren song of some other squad and leave. Instead, Williams dug in, earned academic honors from Auburn, but most importantly, earned the trust of Bruce Pearl, which helped him return to the starting lineup.
Over his past two seasons, Williams has missed just one game while upping his averages across the board. After collecting the most career games played and wins in Auburn history, Williams put together his most noteworthy season this year and cemented himself on fringe NBA radars. He put up 12.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game, all while slashing a career-high 65.9% from two-point range and a career-high 39.5% from deep while giving up just 1.1 turnovers per contest.
It’s more than the counting stats for Williams, however. He’s a do-it-all forward for the Tigers, and Bruce Pearl plugged him into any role that the team needed. Guard the best player? Williams was there for guys like Kel’el Ware and Dalton Knecht. Keep the ball moving? He consistently made the right choice. Get the team supercharged with a skyscraping dunk or backbreaking three? Williams was right there to do so.
When players are jacks-of-all-trades, it can be hard to pin down specific skills that make them NBA draft prospects. For Williams, who boasts plus wingspan on a chiseled 6’8” frame, his athleticism and how it impacts his play stands out. The mixture of mind and might makes him a monster, as he puts himself in the right place at the right time to use his athletic gifts to maximum effect.
That’s what makes Williams such an interesting player to consider in this draft class. With so much uncertainty towards the end of the draft, there’s room for a sleeper agent to slaughter a workout or three and be a surprising name called. Based on his stellar play that’s still slipped through the cracks, Jaylin Williams is poised to make a major impact for an NBA team early on in his tenure as a role player.
…
Jaylin Williams, Declassified
If you’re drafting for a star and swinging for the fences, Jaylin Williams probably isn’t your best bet. If an NBA team is looking for a player who will selflessly accept whatever role they give him and excel, however, Williams is much more up that alley. That speaks to his all-around versatile play on both ends, which is hard to come by in any draft class, much less in the 2024 crop.
It’s not an insult to say that Williams could be an ideal role-playing forward at the next level. He can finish with force on the inside, hit shots from deep to keep defenses honest, make quick decisions on passes, and guard inside and out. When combined with plus athleticism vertically and horizontally, that mixture of skills provides the outlines of only effective archetypes.
Compared to some of the more specialized prospects in the class, it’s hard to imagine that any NBA wouldn’t want a switchable player like Williams on their team. NBA teams can never have enough shooting and defense, and with a player like Jaylin Williams, they wouldn’t have to wait at all to get it.
That gives Williams a pretty safe floor for making an NBA roster and a sturdy ceiling for playing a key role, whether initially starting or off the bench. Every player takes some time to adjust to the pace of the NBA. Still, given he’s already willingly shifted between starting and playing off of the pine, there’s little doubt that Williams would be willing to do the same for a professional team tomorrow.
That’s what makes the fact that Jaylin Williams is flying under the radar so hard to believe. He’s a sleeper agent only by name, as I’m sure multiple NBA teams have their eyes on him and his varied skill set. Jaylin Williams stands out amongst the other prospects this year as one of the few players who can truly fit onto any roster in any system due to his skills, which makes him likely to sneak up on unsuspecting fan bases and give them a new favorite role player to cheer for quicker than they ever expected.
Cam Spencer
Guard, 6-4, 205lb
BPM #8
PRPG #7
Vecenie 6-5 #36
Yahoo 6-17 #54
The Ringer 5-9 #48
O'Conner 6-17 #53
Vecenie 6-5 #36
Why does BPM love him?
#2 Offensive Rating in the NCAA on average Usage
Really efficient shooting (EFG, TS%, 91.1% FT, 44.0% 3P), doesn’t turn over the ball.
Above average Steal Rate.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
24 years old (which is really old) and a fifth-year senior…
…and not too athletic, which is why he’s fighting to be drafted despite having a good NCAA Tournament and one of the best statistical years in college basketball.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Sam Merrill 2020
Denzel Valentine 2015
Reggie Bullock 2013
Ty Jerome 2019
Sam Vecenie, NY Times
The Warriors seem like a team that will take whatever comes to them. Also, they’re not afraid to offer guaranteed money in order to try to get players to slide down to their pick. They did that last year to get Jackson-Davis. Connecticut guard Cam Spencer, San Francisco forward Jonathan Mogbo and Houston guard Jamal Shead are players who I can see the team appreciating if they were to fall that far down the order. The Warriors have valued high-skill, high-IQ players in the brief tenure of Mike Dunleavy Jr., and all three of those guys possess those qualities in some respect.
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
SHADES OF
Pat Connaughton
Catch-and-shoot Threat
Off-Ball Mover
Feel for the Game
PLUSES
Knockdown 3-point shooter. He hit more than 40 percent of his 3s in his five-year college career, displaying dynamic shooting ability coming off screens and handoffs. But he’s not just a spot-up guy, considering his solid handling ability, which gives him the room to dribble into midrange jumpers, floaters, and layups.
Hustler off the ball who is always looking for lanes to cut to the rim and relocate behind the arc. He could be a major asset in a two-man game with a playmaking big since he’s so good as a shooter, cutter, and mover who can also pass.
Good decision-maker with the ball in his hands who can run a pick-and-roll or at least offer reliable playmaking when attacking closeouts or running the break.
Compensates for his lack of athleticism with pump and head fakes to create space for floaters and layups on his drives to the basket.
Absolute baller who competes on every single defensive possession and chases rebounds out of his area. He is almost always in the right position because of his level of preparation. He’s also quite agile and has strong instincts.
MINUSES
Undersized wing who lacks the length to defend bigger players.
He had a serious hip issue early in his college career that required surgery to repair a deformity that prevented his femur from properly attaching to his hip joint.
Wasserman, NBA.com
Previous mock draft spot: No. 56
Team: Connecticut
Position: SG
Size: 6-foot-4, 205 lbs
Age: 24, Senior
Nationality: American
Pro comparison: Jeff Hornacek
At 24 years old with underwhelming physical and athletic traits, Cam Spencer will be earning himself draft looks thanks to consistent, off-screen shooting and ball-screen skills with his pull-up, floater and passing. His competitiveness and toughness could give him an extra edge in front-office conversations.
Jalen Bridges
Forward, 6-7, 220lb
BPM #34
PRPG #32
Givony Woo ESPN 5-31 #53
O'Conner 6-17 #41
SI 5-16 #48
Vecenie 6-5 #52
Yahoo 6-17 #48
Why does BPM love him?
Good 42% on 3s, 61.6 True Shooting
Positive defender and just solid all around.
Low turnovers and fouls rarely.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a fifth year senior.
Low usage in college.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Bennedict Mathurin 2021
Hunter Tyson 2023
Gradey Dick 2023
Saddiq Bey 2020
Isaiah Livers 2021
Sam Vecenie, NY Times
Slater: In his most recent mock draft (which you can read in full here), Vecenie has the Warriors selecting 23-year-old Jalen Bridges, a 6-foot-7 wing out of Baylor.
Vecenie: Bridges is the kind of rangy 6-foot-7 wing with long arms that fits this scheme as a 3-and-D player. He’s turned himself into a solid shooter, having made 37 percent of his career 3s and 41.2 percent of his 3s this season. Defensively, he does a solid job on the ball, but where I really love him is with team defense. He’s excellent at playing one-on-two on the back side with his length, and can occasionally cover some ground around the weak side of the rim. He’d make some sense for them, for sure.
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
Quintessential role player who enhances his teammates with 3-and-D skills and flashes higher upside.
SHADES OF
Royce O’Neale crossed with Mikal Bridges
On-Ball Defense
Catch-and-shoot Threat
Off-Ball Mover
PLUSES
Dynamic shooter with clean mechanics who can run off screens or take 3s off the dribble.
Displays shot creation skills in some of his pull-up 3s, in-out dribbles on drives, and spin moves. Even if he never becomes a primary ball handler, he can at least thrive attacking closeouts and going coast-to-coast on the break.
High-IQ player without the ball. He relocates on the perimeter for 3s and looks for cutting opportunities at the rim. His intelligence applies to his passing as well, as he limits his mistakes.
Competitive defender with a long wingspan who can switch screens to defend multiple positions or fight through them and slide his feet to mirror opposing shot creators. He also disrupts passing lanes, especially when Baylor plays its zone defense, showcasing his ability to be an effective helper at the next level.
MINUSES
Inconsistent 3-point shooter until his senior year, though his near–80 percent clip from the line in his collegiate career bodes well for his potential.
He’s a low-usage player who hasn’t proved he can be a lead creator.
Wasserman, BP
#58
May 12 Mock Draft Spot: No. 51
School/team: Baylor
Position: SF/PF
Size: 6'7", 213 lbs
Age: 23, Senior
Nationality: American
Pro comparison: Dorian Finney-Smith
Jalen Bridges had some encouraging stretches of shotmaking during scrimmages to follow up a breakout shooting season at Baylor. His measurements likely didn't help, considering Baylor listed him at 6'9", 225 pounds, and he came in under 6'7" in socks.
Midway through the second round, teams could start thinking about the idea of an adaptable, three-and-D wing who can guard both forward spots.
MavsDraft
Pros:
Good rebounder
Successful standstill shooter with an effortless release
Good off-ball mover, both for cuts and for movement 3s
High upside for coming off screens as he irons out minor tweaks in his base from going full sprint to stop
Consistently good rebounder
Low mistake player that doesn’t force bad plays
Good motor that helps him win loose balls
Plays the passing lanes well and does a good job of zone defensive playmaking
Cons:
Has a poor handle and dribbles off his foot/knee too often
A bit stiff in general
Doesn’t get to the line much, largely in part because of the 2 point shots he takes
Struggled in isolation defense, and can be shaken off his spot easily by hard jab steps and by shifty ball-handlers
Swing Skills:
How does his mediocre athleticism limit his game?
…lots more at the original linked report…
Projected draft range: 25-40
Expected role: Off-ball mover with excellent shooting ability.
Unplayable if: A bad shooting night happens and his handle doesn’t improve, and stiff movements limit his defensive ability against quicker ball-handlers.
Exceeds expectations if: Defense hits, shot translates at an almost elite level, and he adds more muscle to his frame.
Vote
You can vote here. You can also post a comment vote which counts as 10 votes. (Or both.) However, to officially count, the comment must be include exactly one hashtag out of #Jones, #Williams, #Spencer, #Bridges.
Funny variations cause extra work for me.
I'd be fine with Spencer or Bridges. The coin flip goes to #Bridges.
#Spencer. We really need a serious outside shooting threat on the second unit to stretch and stress defenses and enable the occasional comeback from a big deficit, or hang on to a lead. If he keeps knocking them down, Kerr will play him, unlike the other guys in this list, even though they might turn out to be better overall players in the long run.