DNHQ Draft Tourney Group C: Tristen Newton, Reece Beekman, Jonathan Mogbo, Cam Spencer; plus open thread
DNHQ Draft Tourney Group C: Tristen Newton, Reece Beekman, Jonathan Mogbo, Cam Spencer; plus open thread
including two 2024 NCAA Tournament champions
Our Draft Tournament
Yes, we are having our FIFTH annual DNHQ Draft Tournament, where Dub Nation gets to vote on whom the Warriors should draft via head to head showdowns.
If the Warriors end up trading the pick, I’ll end the draft tournament early. If the Warriors somehow trade up, I’ll somehow re-fashion the Tourney.
Overall results and how we chose the field at 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament. Past Draft Tourneys archived here.
Don’t be a party pooper and say the Warriors should trade the pick or that it doesn’t matter.
Tristen Newton
Guard, 6-5, 200lb
BPM #24
PRPG #13
The Ringer 5-9 #57
Yahoo 4-9 #45
Why does BPM love him?
Good Offensive Rating on high Usage and average shooting efficiency. Very high Assist Rate and low Foul Rate. Above average defensive stats and defensive rebounding.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a fifth-year player the size of a shooting guard and not athletic, so he’s mocked for the low second round despite being named the 2024 NCAA Tournament's Most Outstanding Player.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Lamar Patterson 2014
Trae Young 2018
I don’t know why my algorithm insists that he’s similar to Trae Young, but it is certain of it. Trae had higher assist rate with better shooting, though due to difficulty Trae shot threes at only 36.1%.
Payton Pritchard 2020
Coby White 2019
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
Glue guy who brings winning intangibles to the floor with a well-rounded skill set.
SHADES OF
Delon Wright
On-Ball Defense
Interior Scoring
Got That Dog in Him
PLUSES
Flashes 3-point shooting upside: He made 35.7 percent of spot-up 3s in two years with UConn, per Synergy. Though he struggles off the dribble, he did make over 80 percent of his free throws in every collegiate season, so he clearly has touch. But he has fairly stiff mechanics that likely limit his jumper.
Skilled at-rim finisher.
Brings positive intangibles to the game. He hustles, plays hard on defense, and rebounds.
After transferring from East Carolina, he won two national titles with UConn and played a much bigger role in his second season as a leader off the court and the lead guard on it.
MINUSES
Needs to tweak his shooting mechanics to become a more reliable spot-up shooter and any semblance of a threat shooting off the dribble.
Below-the-rim finisher with some athletic limitations that put a cap on his upside.
Wasserman, NBA.com
Previous mock draft spot: No. 51
Team: Connecticut
Position: PG
Size: 6-foot-5, 195 lbs
Age: 22, Senior
Nationality: American
Pro comparison: Terance Mann
Even if there are flaws tied to Tristen Newton’s athletic limitations and shooting, his versatility and winning percentage will earn him two-way contract offers. The Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player was Connecticut’s engine during its win over Purdue, finishing with 20 points, seven assists, five boards and zero turnovers. He’s ultimately showcased enough shotmaking, passing and tough finishing for teams to take a chance on an older player who might not pass the eye test.
Wasserman, BP, May 21 update
#52
May 12 Mock Draft Spot: No. 52
School/team: Connecticut
Position: PG
Size: 6'3", 192 lbs
Age: 23, Senior
Nationality: American
Pro comparison: Terance Mann
Tristen Newton surprised scouts when he opted to skip scrimmaging. Teams should ultimately have a confident feel for the 23-year-old's game, which played a key role during Connecticut's repeat championships.
Newton should draw second-round interest and two-way offers from teams who see a Swiss Army knife guard who can make plays for teammates, knock down shots and adapt to different roles and situations.
Hollinger on NBA Combine
Most baffling on-court absence: Tristen Newton, Connecticut
As ever, a few players (and their representatives) got a little too cute in leaving their players out of the five-on-five part the competition. While nobody expects players with top-20 projections to risk guaranteed first-round money with a bad showing or injury, that calculus changes quite a bit for the next tier of players. The Scheiermans, Simpsons and Sheads I listed above will displace other players on draft boards, and the most likely victims are the nonparticipants.
Players such as Newton, Ariel Hukporti, Hunter Sallis, Tyler Kolek, Bobi Klintman, DaRon Holmes, Jaylon Tyson and Cam Christie weren’t exactly assured of top-40 selections before the week, and their athletic testing numbers were unlikely to move the needle. The lowest-rated of those players on most expert draft boards was Newton, a fifth-year guard from Connecticut who has two national titles on his résumé, but needs to show evaluators he can shine outside of UConn’s system.
These are the players NBA teams want to see on the court at the combine. They’ll get other chances to play in front of teams they visit for draft workouts, but five-on-five play isn’t permitted at those events. This was their best chance to make a case for themselves on the court, and they punted.
Reece Beekman
Guard, 6-3, 174lb
BPM #21
PRPG #157
The Ringer 5-9 #67
TheAthletic 4-19 #85
Why does BPM love him?
He has a stupendous 44.7% Assist Rate (% of teammate scores he assists on), #1 in the whole NCAA.
He also has a high Steal Rate (4.1% of opponent possessions stolen by Beekman), #28 in the nation.
Average Offensive Rating on high usage. His turnovers are low and he doesn’t foul much.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a four year senior.
His shooting is not good.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Tyler Ennis 2014
Kris Dunn 2015
Norris Cole 2011
Tre Jones 2020
Highlights
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
SHADES OF
Jose Alvarado
Floor General
On-Ball Defense
Off-Ball Defense
Hustle
PLUSES
Excellent defender who won ACC Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight year as a senior despite an increased offensive workload. He mirrors opponents’ movements on-ball as if he knows the play they’re running. With his long wingspan, he’s able to bother the ball handler even if they have a slight edge.
He makes smart rotations, stays active, and shows great fundamentals chasing players through screens as an off-ball defender. And in the passing lanes, he’s a total menace. He is the type of rookie even a veteran head coach will trust early on.
Patient ball handler in the pick-and-roll. He knows how to navigate screens and use angles to slither his way into the paint. Though he isn’t the speediest player, he knows how to alternate pace to generate space.
Minimizes mistakes as a ball handler. He can help in running the offense in a pinch, even if he’s not a primary option.
Solid finisher in the paint who started draining floaters as a senior.
MINUSES
Ineffective shooter with a hitch and a low release, as he holds the ball far in front of his face. If his dribble jumper doesn’t improve, defenders will go under screens, capping his ceiling as a playmaker.
Ersin Demir
Low-usage leading guards who consistently show they can carry a team on the defensive end are feasible investments to make. Beekman averaged under 20% usage in his three seasons at Virginia and has been the main player on Virginia’s gritty defensive-minded team.
With 27.6% usage as a senior, it’s his team to run now, and the production will be a crucial factor for how high he can go on draft night. The intangibles are his unique selling point. The combination of feel for the game, awareness, and defensive activity make him the plug-and-play point guard who’ll have NBA decision-makers interested in him.
Physical Profile
At 6’2”, Beekman filled out his frame measuring 194 pounds, twenty more than when he started his college career. With a 6’7” wingspan his length is good enough to comfortably guard the one and two positions at the next level.
Beekman is a solid athlete who knows how to use his body to gain advantages. While he isn’t explosive, his ability to accelerate and decelerate makes him a scoring threat on top of his playmaking duties.
Defense
The first thing that stood out in Beekman’s profile is that he’s consistently making his rotations. That’s an area that’ll serve him well early on in his career in terms of earning NBA minutes.
…
As an NBA point guard, Beekman must be able to guard the point of attack. In terms of the scalability of his defensive presence that’s an important measurement to determine which types of minutes he’ll be able to handle.
Beekman shows that he slides his feet very well. An improvement in the last two seasons is his keeping the same aggressiveness without fouling. At 1.3 personal fouls in almost 32 minutes per game, that’s a good sign of him being able to guard at the NBA level while maintaining his team’s pace.
…
At the NBA level, the P&R ball handler is the most common play type, making it important for him to be able to physically neutralize the danger near the rim. While turning 23 just before the start of the regular season, Beekman already added twenty pounds in his college career. NBA decision-makers have to add that to his developmental plan.
Offense
…
With 6.0 assists per game, Beekman is currently leading the ACC. Just like he’s creating driving lanes with his plays out of the pick-and-roll, Beekman does the same when he’s creating for others.
His early role is important when testing the feasibility of his NBA game. Therefore, making plays as the secondary creator was the focus of evaluating his pick-and-roll playmaking. The first two plays below show he’s solid in finding his teammates while utilizing a ball screen or doing it off the dribble.
Coach Bennett’s style of play at Virginia focuses on utilizing tight lanes with motion and in his four years there Beekman has mastered this type of play. The only concern an NBA decision-maker could have is that he’s too half-court-focused and hasn’t shown that he can do the same things at a higher pace. That’s something he’ll have to show during summer workouts.
NBA Draft Projection
Beekman is one of the top point guards in college basketball due to him being a consistent factor for Virginia in each of his four seasons there. With the first three ones being on less than 20% usage, he had to show that he could carry the load for the Cavaliers to add more value to his profile.
He succeeds in proving that he can maintain the same level of play while having to be his team’s leader, which increases his draft value. An NBA decision-maker will value his ability to make plays with and without the ball in his hands. The lack of pace is a concern in terms of fully translating his game to the NBA level.
However, a defender of his caliber shouldn’t cause any long-term issues to deal with for an NBA team. Especially considering that he mastered using his physical tools to gain advantages, with the ability to accelerate and decelerate combined with his footwork being the most crucial one.
The ACC’s leader in assists is doing so coming off screens and with the ball in his hands. He’s able to consistently knock down jumpers and has a clear path to play early NBA minutes. He’ll be 23 years old near the start of next season and therefore he has to be able to contribute on day one.
The focus on long-term value is less important in his profile, and considering how deep this class is in terms of depth, that’s an area not working in his favor. With the above-mentioned arguments in mind, I project that Beekman will be an early second-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
Jonathan Mogbo
Forward, 6-8, 225lb
BPM #13
PRPG #36
Why does BPM love him?
Rebounds like crazy (#4 in the country in Rebounding Percentage) on both ends.
Above average Assist Rate and above average at not turning the ball over.
Even has a well-above average Steal Rate.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
22 years old, and too small to be a big, yet he does not shoot threes AT ALL. His mediocre FT% does not inspire hope either.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Mason Plumlee 2013
Kenneth Faried 2011
Trayce Jackson-Davis 2022
Daniel Gafford 2019
Wasserman, BP
May 12 Mock Draft Spot: Off the board
School/team: San Francisco
Position: PF
Size: 6'6", 217 lbs
Age: 22, Junior
Nationality: American
Pro comparison: Kenneth Faried
Jonathan Mogbo helped his stock in Chicago, showing how he can fit without a jumper at just 6'6" in socks. He plays much bigger than his measurements around the basket. But he also showed how well he can handle in the open floor and process quickly as a passer. The tools/athleticism for scoring around the basket and playmaking ability create a unique archetype that teams will find enticing in the second round.
ESPN NBA Combine Report
Jonathan Mogbo, C, San Francisco: Mogbo didn't put up eye-popping stats -- 4 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists in 18 minutes -- but had impressive glimpses of playmaking and versatility not typically found among big men. His coach, Ryan Forehan-Kelly, gave him the freedom to push the ball up the court off defensive rebounds and initiate the half-court offense as a pick-and-roll ball handler. Mogbo, ranked No. 70 in our top 100, had flashes of pace, creative passing and polished footwork, which isn't surprising considering he's a late bloomer who grew up playing more guard until hitting a growth spurt.
Measured at 6-7 1/2 and 217 pounds, albeit with a 7-2 wingspan and 9-0 1/2 standing reach, Mogbo doesn't have great size or bulk for a big man who doesn't shoot 3-pointers. A return to college for his final year of eligibility to address some of the things teams want to see him work on might help improve his standing for the 2025 draft. -- Givony
Ersin Demir
After playing two seasons of JUCO basketball as an underclassman, Mogbo brought competitive fire and fundamentals to his first opportunity at the D-1 level. After finishing as a top-5 offensive rebounder and shot blocker in the Missouri Valley Conference, Mogbo transferred to the Bay Area, committing to Coach Gerlufsen and the staff of the University of San Francisco.
As of 16 March 2023, Mogbo leads the WCC in total rebounding, steals, and field goal percentage, while taking on a role as the team’s leader, which put him on NBA radars.
Physical Profile
At 6’8”, Mogbo is a bruiser who’ll primarily play as a five at the next level. He has a 7-foot-plus wingspan that makes up for the lack of size. However, the plus value is in his excellent upper body strength combined with his fluid hips. This makes him mobile while being able to handle physical contact consistently.
Mogbo is a great athlete who gets quickly off the ground with his vertical pop. Combined with his huge hands, he has the tools to be an above-average roll man at the next level. A potential game-changer in the above-mentioned areas is Mogbo’s excellent burst which opens up the ability to guard multiple positions at the next level.
Defense
One crucial trait Mogbo will offer an NBA team is to guard the perimeter effectively. In a switch-heavy NBA game, the ability to defend in space laterally becomes more important, especially considering that downhill driving is still one of the most used weapons to collapse a defense.
In Mogbo’s case, he recognizes when to rotate and when to keep up with his assignments. He slides his feet well on defense; the most important thing that stands out is his ability to maintain his balance at all costs.
However, at 2.6 personal fouls in 29 minutes per game, Mogbo could be more aggressive at times when defending at the rim
… [the title links to the original longer scouting report]
Another area of his defense that’ll serve Mogbo well is his ability to close out quickly. What stood out was that the process from rotations to contest perimeter shots was consistent throughout his junior year at San Francisco. This is something an NBA decision-maker will value when determining his draft profile.
…
Defending against screen actions will determine how many minutes Mogbo could play on an NBA floor. One of the things he has to clean up is his screen navigation. As he’s often too focused on what the ball handler does during his off-ball defensive plays, he does the same when covering the pick-and-roll.
However, with his ability to react quickly and with his good burst, Mogbo can make up for the lost seconds on most occasions, with the first play below being an example. In the second play, we see Mogbo preparing to take on the ball handler at the level of the free-throw line.
His ability to slide his feet and use his long wingspan to deter shots is going to be valuable from each of the two levels inside the arc. The same applies to when he’s guarding in the pick-and-roll outside of the perimeter, with the third play being an example.
Offense
What sets Mogbo apart from most other big men prospects is his ability to handle the ball. We see a trend of more teams valuing inverted pick-and-rolls and allowing big men to make plays with the ball in their hands. Everything to make an NBA team’s offense more unpredictable will be used to gain advantages. And that’s what Mogbo has to offer in the long run.
While playing as a guard in his younger years, his passing ability grew naturally as the years went by. At 3.5 assists per game, Coach Gerlufsen already trusts his big man to make plays for others. However, as the team’s leading scorer, Mogbo is mostly focusing on finishing plays by himself, as shown in the play below, with the last play standing out the most. The level of physicality and touch is what NBA decision-makers value in the draft process.
The same level of physicality is used by Mogbo to get himself into position for easy finishes down low. At 75.6% on 221 rim attempts this season, he’s one of the most efficient players in the country, and that is the effect of him using his strength to force his will to the defense.
Although he’s not a three-point shooter by any means, Mogbo can use his activity and strength to keep defenses in standby mode to offer help defense, especially when teams are trusting him enough by feeding him with entry passes.
…
NBA Draft Projection
Mogbo will turn 23 years old around the opening night of the next NBA season. The NBA readiness of his game in terms of his rebounding, and ability to guard on all three levels will have NBA decision-makers intrigued. Combine that with his physical gifts in terms of his vertical pop, lateral quickness, and burst, and we see a multi-positional NBA defender who can stay on the floor.
On the defensive end, his tendency to be too focused on the ball handler and the decision he’ll take is something he has to work on. This is something an NBA decision-maker can hold against him, together with his size at 6’8”. Therefore it’s crucial how he measures during the summer.
In the long run, Mogbo offers a team untapped potential as a ball-handler, pick-and-roll creator, and scorer outside of play finishes. That’s the added value in his profile.
Looking at the role Mogbo has to offer and taking the above-mentioned areas into account, I project him to be a late first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, with the likeliness of him ending up on a win-now team that looks to add depth and defensive presence into their frontcourt.
Cam Spencer
Guard, 6-4, 205lb
BPM #8
PRPG #7
The Ringer 5-9 #48
Yahoo 4-9 #47
Why does BPM love him?
#2 Offensive Rating in the NCAA on average Usage
Really efficient shooting (EFG, TS%, 91.1% FT, 44.0% 3P), doesn’t turn over the ball.
Above average Steal Rate.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
24 years old (which is really old) and a fifth-year senior…
…and not too athletic, which is why he’s fighting to be drafted despite having a good NCAA Tournament and one of the best statistical years in college basketball.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Sam Merrill 2020
Denzel Valentine 2015
Reggie Bullock 2013
Ty Jerome 2019
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
SHADES OF
Pat Connaughton
Catch-and-shoot Threat
Off-Ball Mover
Feel for the Game
PLUSES
Knockdown 3-point shooter. He hit more than 40 percent of his 3s in his five-year college career, displaying dynamic shooting ability coming off screens and handoffs. But he’s not just a spot-up guy, considering his solid handling ability, which gives him the room to dribble into midrange jumpers, floaters, and layups.
Hustler off the ball who is always looking for lanes to cut to the rim and relocate behind the arc. He could be a major asset in a two-man game with a playmaking big since he’s so good as a shooter, cutter, and mover who can also pass.
Good decision-maker with the ball in his hands who can run a pick-and-roll or at least offer reliable playmaking when attacking closeouts or running the break.
Compensates for his lack of athleticism with pump and head fakes to create space for floaters and layups on his drives to the basket.
Absolute baller who competes on every single defensive possession and chases rebounds out of his area. He is almost always in the right position because of his level of preparation. He’s also quite agile and has strong instincts.
MINUSES
Undersized wing who lacks the length to defend bigger players.
He had a serious hip issue early in his college career that required surgery to repair a deformity that prevented his femur from properly attaching to his hip joint.
Wasserman, NBA.com
Previous mock draft spot: No. 56
Team: Connecticut
Position: SG
Size: 6-foot-4, 205 lbs
Age: 24, Senior
Nationality: American
Pro comparison: Jeff Hornacek
At 24 years old with underwhelming physical and athletic traits, Cam Spencer will be earning himself draft looks thanks to consistent, off-screen shooting and ball-screen skills with his pull-up, floater and passing. His competitiveness and toughness could give him an extra edge in front-office conversations.
Vote
You can vote here. You can also post a comment vote which counts as 10 votes. (Or both.) However, to officially count, the comment must be include exactly one hashtag out of #Newton, #Beekman, #Mogbo, #Spencer.
Funny variations cause extra work for me.
FOLKS, sorry I accidentally deleted all the votes in this Group C poll. Could you do me the favor of re-voting?
(It turns out if you change the poll to add an option, like for instance, "I don't know", it throws out all your poll results. What idiotic design. Thank you, Substack, thank you.)
New post here: https://dubnationhq.com/p/will-the-mavericks-find-secondary