DNHQ Draft Tourney Group B: Baylor Scheierman, KJ Simpson, Dylan Disu, Jaylin Williams; plus open thread
Baylor Scheirman was the breakout star of the NBA Combine
Our Draft Tournament
Yes, we are having our FIFTH annual DNHQ Draft Tournament, where Dub Nation gets to vote on whom the Warriors should draft via head to head showdowns.
If the Warriors end up trading the pick, I’ll end the draft tournament early. If the Warriors somehow trade up, I’ll somehow re-fashion the Tourney.
Overall results and how we chose the field at 2024 Dub Nation HQ Draft Tournament. Past Draft Tourneys archived here.
Don’t be a party pooper and say the Warriors should trade the pick or that it doesn’t matter.
Baylor Scheierman
Guard, 6-6, 180lb
BPM #33
PRPG #19
SI 5-16 #44
The Ringer 5-9 #45
TheAthletic 4-19 #27
Wasserman 4-23 #39
Yahoo 4-9 #40
Why does BPM love him?
His True Shooting and Offensive Rating are above average at above average usage. Defensive rebounding is unexpectedly strong, assist rate is good, doesn’t turn the ball over much or foul.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a fifth-year player who transferred to Creighton which is in a lower-tier conference and has only been popping for a year.
However, he had an outstanding NBA Combine, so there is a lot of buzz that he might sneak into the first round.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Anthony Brown 2015
Allen Crabbe 2012
Davon Reed 2017
Denzel Valentine 2015
Desmond Bane 2020
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
SHADES OF
Parker Tyles [this is a Ringer joke I think - EA]
Movement Shooter
Off-Ball Mover
Rebounding
Feel for the Game
PLUSES
Versatile shooter who can drain 3s from way beyond the arc using screens, handoffs, and movement within the flow of the offense.
Capable ball handler who can attack closeouts using the threat of his jumper with pump fakes to get into pull-ups and floaters. He can also get all the way to the rim for touch finishes high off the glass.
Pick-and-roll skills give him additive value. He’s more than just a shooting specialist.
High-feel player. He makes timely passes as a connective piece, he’s a willing screener, and he’s a great rebounder for his position.
Solid defender who puts in excellent effort and plays attentively. If his athleticism continues to progress, he’ll at least be serviceable.
MINUSES
He’s not a great athlete. He dunks only when he has space. And he’s limited defensively with heavy feet moving laterally.
Logged only 29 blocks in 162 collegiate games and averaged less than one steal per game.
Wasserman, NBA.com
Team: Creighton
Position: SF
Size: 6-foot-7, 205 lbs
Age: 23, Senior
Nationality: American
Pro comparison: Joe Ingles
Baylor Scheierman went out swinging in Creighton’s loss to Tennessee with 25 points off deep shooting and some improvised shotmaking. He finished the season with 110 3-point makes and a 19.9 assist percentage, numbers that reflect shooting and passing skills, which don’t require plus athletic traits.
ESPN NBA Combine Report:
Creighton shooting guard Baylor Scheierman, ranked No. 39 in our Top 100, had some positive buzz in the gym after a scorching shooting performance in drills, shooting 24-for-30 on pull-up jumpers (second best at combine) and 22-for-25 on spot-up 3s (tied for No. 1). The 23-year-old has good size for the wing, sharp basketball instincts and a plug-and-play NBA skill already with his dynamic shooting ability. He's likely to receive consideration from teams drafting in the first round thanks to his well-rounded profile, strong analytic model numbers and the outsized importance teams are placing on 3-point shooting. -- Givony
Baylor Scheierman, SG/SF, Creighton: Scheierman, ranked No. 39 in our top 100, continued to make his case as a possible first-round pick with a strong scrimmage performance Tuesday -- 17 points, 8 rebounds and 3 steals in a win. It didn't surprise anyone to see Scheierman make deep 3s from all over the court after what he did in college, but he showed more competitiveness defensively than we had previously seen. He generated quite a few turnovers fighting over screens, denying off ball and sliding his feet with purpose. He communicated nonstop and took a step ahead thanks to his sharp basketball instincts. Big wings who can pass and shoot are coveted in today's NBA, and if Scheierman can convince teams he can hold his own defensively, there's no reason he wouldn't project as a solid rotation player. -- Givony
John Hollinger
Best NBA Combine on-court performance: Baylor Scheierman, Creighton
With 26 points, four assists and four steals across two games, Baylor Scheierman was probably the one prospect who did the most to improve his stock in the on-court sessions. A 6-6 wing, Scheierman already had scouts’ attention because he shot 38.1 percent from 3 and 87.6 percent from the line in his final two seasons in the Big East, but he was seen as a mid-to-late second-rounder given his age and iffy athleticism.
In this environment, however, Scheierman showed his skills as a secondary ballhandler could scale up to potentially make him more than just a catch-and-shoot threat at the next level. A respectable 27.5-inch standing vertical and a zippy 3.09-second sprint time added further credibility to the idea that he can hang athletically, especially when added to his stout 15.9 percent rebound rate in Big East games this past season.
Like a lot of players in this draft, the fifth “COVID year” of eligibility given by the NCAA in 2020 means that Scheierman is unusually long in the tooth for a draft prospect: He’ll be 24 by the time training camp opens. However, his ability to be a plug-and-play wing from day one could make him a more attractive proposition than a developmental player and a popular target in the top half of the second round.
KJ Simpson
Guard, 6-2, 175lb
BPM #28
PRPG #4
SI 5-16 #37
Why does BPM love him?
Highly efficient scorer (O Rating, True Shooting, FT%, 3P%) at above average usage. Strong assist rate and good defensive metrics = BPM love.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s short.
He’s a third-year player and has only been popping for a year.
He had a good NBA Combine, but he still seems second round bound.
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Frank Mason III 2017
Russ Smith 2014
Carsen Edwards 2018
Russ Smith 2013
Shabazz Napier 2014
Payton Pritchard 2020
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
SHADES OF
George Hill, Fred VanVleet
Clutch Gene
Movement Shooter
Crafty Finisher
Off-Ball Mover
PLUSES
Spicy shot creator with an ability to hit tough, contested jumpers or make crafty finishes at the rim. With his speedy, tight handle, he can be a handful to defend in isolation, but he also plays a seasoned style with pace in the pick-and-roll.
Needs no time to launch his 3s with a quick release, both off the catch and off the dribble. Give him any space and he’ll fire, whether he’s stepping back in isolation, pulling up against a defender who’s going under in the pick-and-roll, or launching a 3 off a screen.
Excellent off-ball mover who knows how to use screens to get open, whether a curl slingshots him toward the basket or he’s taking 3s from multiple feet behind the line.
Super-active rebounder for a guard. He ripped down nearly six per game as a junior.
Tough defender who constantly fights on the ball. He’s similarly active off the ball, making aware rotations.
MINUSES
Undersized guard who will be targeted by offenses. And he’s not a great athlete, either. So regardless of his hustle or instincts, teams will go after him.
Struggled as a shooter over his first two collegiate seasons, making below 30 percent of his 3s. However, his improvement is likely real since he’s always had touch from the line and near the rim.
Wasserman, NBA.com
Previous mock draft spot: No. 32
Team: Colorado
Position: Guard
Size: 6-foot-2, 189 lbs
Age/Year: 21, Junior
Nationality: American
Pro comparison: Cole Anthony
While there will always be skeptics in undersized scoring guards, KJ Simpson demonstrated the type of craftiness, high-level shotmaking and competitiveness for teams to bet on a 6’2″ guard overcoming some physical limitations. At least if the gamble only requires a pick in the late 20s or second round.
Simpson had an ultra productive and efficient season that continued into the NCAA tournament. A contested, game-winning dribble jumper against Florida gave Colorado a second win.
A 43.1% catch-and-shoot guard who hit 42.7% of his pull-ups and 43.2% of his mid-range shots, totaled 110 made half-court buckets at the rim and registered a 25 assist percentage in three consecutive season, Simpson is still likely to go late in the draft due to size and athletic question marks.
ESPN NBA Combine Report
KJ Simpson, PG, Colorado: Simpson was his usual self on Tuesday, showcasing his aggressiveness as a scorer racking up 16 points and 3 steals. Despite his size, measuring at just over 6-feet barefooted, Simpson gets into the paint effectively with a fearless approach going downhill and a good understanding of how to work his way to the rim. On the heels of an efficient junior year at Colorado, there has been curiosity from teams if Simpson can find a niche as a microwave-type scorer off the bench, or if he's best suited for a strong career overseas.
Some of Simpson's weaknesses were evident -- he doesn't have great vision as a playmaker, nor is he a high-level passer. But the No. 47th-ranked player in our Top 100 is an excellent athlete (reinforced by positive combine testing), changes speeds well off the dribble and proves tough for defenders to stay in front of. He did well on Tuesday to remind scouts he was one of the top guards in college basketball last season, and his mix of speed, strength and scoring instincts at his size should give teams something to think about. -- Woo
KJ Simpson, PG, Colorado: After a strong first scrimmage, Simpson (ranked No. 47 in our ESPN 100) wrapped up the combine with 11 points, seven rebounds and four assists in a win. Simpson, who averaged 19.7 points for a Colorado team that won two NCAA tournament games, helped his cause in Chicago with his passing ability -- showing unselfishness and creativity with impressive timing and pace. He's smart using screens, drives the paint with his head up and can operate in short and midrange spots.
Simpson measures at 6-foot-1½ in shoes and 187 pounds, so demonstrating his point guard abilities rather than at combo like he has been billed most of his career was important. Defensively, he pressured the ball and fought over screens -- critical at his size. In a league filled with oversized wings, some NBA teams won't consider drafting a player of Simpson's stature, so showing he can be productive in a different role was a positive step in positioning himself to get drafted. -- Givony
Hollinger on NBA Combine
Simpson may have moved himself into the tail end of the first round with his strong showing on the court. The junior guard from Colorado battled injuries and mononucleosis during his sophomore season, but had a breakout junior season in 2023-24. The 6-1 ball of energy showed his game could translate even against bigger players, compiling 27 points and 10 rebounds in his two games.
Dylan Disu
Forward, 6-9, 220lb
BPM #25
PRPG #160
TheAthletic 4-19 #96
Why does BPM love him?
Very good defensive metrics (above average block and steal rates). Okay scoring efficiency at above average usage.
Good FT% and on 45.1% shooting from three on medium volume (41-91).
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a five-year player.
He’s short for a center and big for a 4. His 3P% spiked in senior year, is it real?
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Jon Leuer 2010
Jabari Smith 2022
Chris Singleton 2011
Ryan Kelly 2013
Keenan Womack, SI
Role in the NBA
At the next level, Disu is more acclimated to playing as a stretch big than as a pure post. He's suited especially for spot-up shooting, and his efficiency from deep this season has been beyond impressive – currently, he's hitting 52.6% of his 3-point shots on three attempts per game.
Arguably the most important leap for Disu to make it into the NBA is his shooting ability, and he is backing up the deep shooting with a very solid 76% at the free-throw line on 3.2 takes per.
However, the path to a successful NBA career for him involves a couple of important steps beyond his improved stroke.
The first? Regaining some of his tenacity on the boards.
He needs to more consistently demonstrate the motor that once led him to be the SEC's leading rebounder as a sophomore at Vanderbilt. He was an absolute force in 2019-2020, a relentless hound that would not be denied the rock, recording over nine rebounds a game before a season-ending injury sidelined him for nearly a year.
Additionally, the second step is becoming a better defender – he's not bad now, but if he can become a legitimate three-and-D threat, his NBA career exponentially increases in longevity. Half of 3-and-D is defense, but unfortunately, Disu has a few major flaws that could make the transition into this role very difficult.
The Obstacles
The primary thing holding Dylan Disu back is lacking explosive athleticism and strength. At 6-foot-9, he's not big enough to overpower all defenders with his height, which is something a guy like forward Jabari Smith Jr. from the Houston Rockets can do, for example.
Disu also can't explode past a defender for a dunk, and can't attack closeouts because he doesn't have any kind of burst or quick first step to get him past an over-committed player on the perimeter.
His finesse-based low-post game translating seems a bit of a tall order as well, as he has a strange, low release from 10-to-15 feet that looks as if it could be easily blocked by players with longer wingspans.
He gets himself into foul trouble quite a bit, also. While averaging 1.2 blocks per game, he also averages 3.5 personal fouls, which has forced him to the bench in several important games this season.
This is something NBA coaches will note on the scouting report, putting a big target on his back in defensive switch situations, especially against quick guards.
The other problem is that he can be muscled in the low post by stronger forwards and centers, which has been evident this season as a part of a confluence of factors leading to Texas' inability to protect the defensive glass.
This hole in the armor has caused several losses for the Longhorns, particularly in Big 12 conference play, where physicality is the backbone of the culture. This includes a Feb. 6 loss to Iowa State, where the Cyclones recorded 16 offensive rebounds.
Should Disu become better on the glass, his draft stock, and the Longhorns team, would be much better off for it. What this will require is serious work in the weight room.
At the moment, he weighs 225 pounds, which is not slight, but not big enough to bang with the power forwards of the NBA. …
Considering he does not have a Dillon Mitchell-like ability to jump out of the gym as previously mentioned, barbells and protein shakes need to become Disu's best friend. He has to play the defensive post, as he's not quick enough laterally to play defense on the perimeter in the NBA, or in college, for that matter.
Current State
As it stands now, Dylan Disu is probably an undrafted free agent who could compete for a two-way contract. In a 2024 draft class not known for being particularly deep, he may have found the perfect year to try and breakthrough.
He is unfortunately 23 years old, but we've seen upperclassmen drafted, often with decent success. Guys like the 2023 NBA Draft's 30th pick, 23-year-old forward Kobe Brown from Missouri, can give Disu hope about his draft eligibility despite being nearly old enough to rent a car. …
Jaylin Williams
Forward, 6-8, 230lb
BPM #19
PRPG #155
TheAthletic 4-19 #98
Why does BPM love him?
Great scoring efficiency (EFG, TS%) and Offensive Rating at average usage. Doesn’t turn the ball over, above average shooting on FT, 2FG and 3FG. DBPM loves his defense, but I’m not sure precisely why.
Why isn’t he in the first round?
He’s a five-year player.
His 3P% spiked in senior year, is it real?
Apricot’s Highly Questionable Statistical Comps
This is from an experimental program finding closest statistical comparisons to other NCAA players since 2010.
Eric Paschall 2018
Aaron White 2014
Obi Toppin 2019
SI.com
A former top 100 recruit, Williams has experienced an interesting college career. After a breakout sophomore campaign, he saw a reduced role as a junior off the bench. However, he had another resurgence last season as a senior in what was a a career year. As a starter in year four, he averaged a career-best 11.4 points per game, 4.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists while shooting 35.4% from deep. The ability to stay composed throughout the ups and downs over the past few years is impressive and Williams' improvement is overall positive.
He’s an underrated positional passer and a smart player, producing 74 assists to only 39 turnovers last season. He’s a decent rebounder for a forward, but could be better cleaning the glass. Leveraging his high IQ and ability to be a high floor, connecting piece should be attractive to NBA teams.
The 3-point shot has been inconsistent over the past four years, but we’ve seen enough to feel optimistic about it translating to the NBA. Over his four year career, Williams knocked down 33% of his triples. He is also a quality free throw shooter which is another reason to believe in the jumper, converting on nearly 75% of his free throws in his college career.
A 6-foot-8 with the ability to do a bit of everything, he projects to be a quality role player at the next level. While at Auburn, Williams has played alongside numerous NBA talents. He’s filled multiple roles and has showcased versatility and the ability to adapt to what the team needs. His skillset and ability to slot into many different types of lineups makes him an easier fit on nearly any team relative to other second-round talents.
There’s no guarantee he’s selected in the 2024 NBA Draft, but Williams does have what it takes to make it in the league. He's the type of prospect that will need to have a great pre-draft process meeting and working out with teams.
Draft Projection: Potential Second-Round Pick in 2024 NBA Draft.
Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more
Rowan Kent, No Ceilings
Sometimes a player slips through the cracks of the draft for good reasons. Sometimes, however, a prospect like Jaylin Williams deserves much more hype than he's received so far.
… a lot more in the original linked article …
If you’ve been watching SEC basketball in the 2020s, you’ve probably watched Jaylin Williams at least a few times. Williams came to Auburn not as a consensus Top 100 recruit but as the fourth-highest-ranked player in all of Georgia. He played sparingly as a freshman before watching his role fluctuate as a sophomore and junior.
After starting almost every game alongside Sharife Cooper, Allen Flannigan, and JT Thor, Williams accepted a bench role with the arrival of Jabari Smith. Instead of transferring out for greener pastures, Williams bought into the change, which reduced his counting stats and minutes. As a senior, having watched both Smith and Walker Kessler head to the NBA, Williams reclaimed his starting spot and kept a stranglehold on it as a senior and graduate student.
It’s a testament to who Williams is as a person and a player that he accepted his smaller role. In the era of transfers and transactions, it’s easy to hear the siren song of some other squad and leave. Instead, Williams dug in, earned academic honors from Auburn, but most importantly, earned the trust of Bruce Pearl, which helped him return to the starting lineup.
Over his past two seasons, Williams has missed just one game while upping his averages across the board. After collecting the most career games played and wins in Auburn history, Williams put together his most noteworthy season this year and cemented himself on fringe NBA radars. He put up 12.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game, all while slashing a career-high 65.9% from two-point range and a career-high 39.5% from deep while giving up just 1.1 turnovers per contest.
It’s more than the counting stats for Williams, however. He’s a do-it-all forward for the Tigers, and Bruce Pearl plugged him into any role that the team needed. Guard the best player? Williams was there for guys like Kel’el Ware and Dalton Knecht. Keep the ball moving? He consistently made the right choice. Get the team supercharged with a skyscraping dunk or backbreaking three? Williams was right there to do so.
When players are jacks-of-all-trades, it can be hard to pin down specific skills that make them NBA draft prospects. For Williams, who boasts plus wingspan on a chiseled 6’8” frame, his athleticism and how it impacts his play stands out. The mixture of mind and might makes him a monster, as he puts himself in the right place at the right time to use his athletic gifts to maximum effect.
That’s what makes Williams such an interesting player to consider in this draft class. With so much uncertainty towards the end of the draft, there’s room for a sleeper agent to slaughter a workout or three and be a surprising name called. Based on his stellar play that’s still slipped through the cracks, Jaylin Williams is poised to make a major impact for an NBA team early on in his tenure as a role player.
…
Jaylin Williams, Declassified
If you’re drafting for a star and swinging for the fences, Jaylin Williams probably isn’t your best bet. If an NBA team is looking for a player who will selflessly accept whatever role they give him and excel, however, Williams is much more up that alley. That speaks to his all-around versatile play on both ends, which is hard to come by in any draft class, much less in the 2024 crop.
It’s not an insult to say that Williams could be an ideal role-playing forward at the next level. He can finish with force on the inside, hit shots from deep to keep defenses honest, make quick decisions on passes, and guard inside and out. When combined with plus athleticism vertically and horizontally, that mixture of skills provides the outlines of only effective archetypes.
Compared to some of the more specialized prospects in the class, it’s hard to imagine that any NBA wouldn’t want a switchable player like Williams on their team. NBA teams can never have enough shooting and defense, and with a player like Jaylin Williams, they wouldn’t have to wait at all to get it.
That gives Williams a pretty safe floor for making an NBA roster and a sturdy ceiling for playing a key role, whether initially starting or off the bench. Every player takes some time to adjust to the pace of the NBA. Still, given he’s already willingly shifted between starting and playing off of the pine, there’s little doubt that Williams would be willing to do the same for a professional team tomorrow.
That’s what makes the fact that Jaylin Williams is flying under the radar so hard to believe. He’s a sleeper agent only by name, as I’m sure multiple NBA teams have their eyes on him and his varied skill set. Jaylin Williams stands out amongst the other prospects this year as one of the few players who can truly fit onto any roster in any system due to his skills, which makes him likely to sneak up on unsuspecting fan bases and give them a new favorite role player to cheer for quicker than they ever expected.
Vote
You can vote here. You can also post a comment vote which counts as 10 votes. (Or both.) However, to officially count, the comment must be include exactly one hashtag out of #Scheierman, #Simpson, #Disu, #Williams.
Funny variations cause extra work for me.
Baylor Scheierman, KJ Simpson, Dylan Disu, Jaylin Williams
I think my vote goes to #SIMPSON because his scoring ability looks like the real deal and I think we're gonna want people who can put the ball in the basket with high efficiency in coming years.
shooting, size, and connective passing? I'm in on #SCHEIERMAN
(next choice Williams if, as seems likely, Baylor is gone before we get to him)