Did the Golden State Warriors waste Steph Curry’s last few years?

Sobering thoughts from legendary basketball scribe Patrick Murray about dynastic choices in the Bay.

In the wake of another Golden State Warriors play-in flameout, a lot of people can’t help shaking that nagging feeling that Steph Curry’s could have won ring number 5 if the Warriors had made different decisions.

But is that really true or are we chasing a feather in the wind?

The 2022 championship

Back in 2019 in the wake of Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson’s devastating injuries, the loss to the Toronto Raptors and amid rumours of Durant’s departure I wrote a piece over at Forbes titled “It’s the end of a Golden Era, but not necessarily the Warriors dynasty”. I had spent part of that playoff run - the Houston Rockets series - in the Bay Area and witnessed that dramatic turn of events including being in Oracle when Durant went down in Game 5, and the old Warriors stormed back in a thrilling victory. Game 6 in Houston remains one of my favourite games. The run to the Finals, and the sense that series would have made it to a Game 7 in Toronto had Klay not gone down fuelled my deeply held belief that the core of Steph, Dray and Klay with Kerr as coach could still get it done. One of my last ever pieces with Forbes was my 21-22 season preview which said the Warriors could win a title but it all came down to Klay’s return.

And as we all know the Warriors won the 2022 title of course. I said on a DubNationHQ podcast with Daniel and Duby that if this was it for the dynasty I’d be happy (though I must say the gold-blood was flowing freely and I might have predicted a few more rings lol).

Did it go wrong?

The last time I picked up my pen at DubNationHQ in January 2024 I reflected on closure beyond closure. At that point it did feel pretty lost. We’d had the “punch”, then the puncher’s chance in the 2023 playoffs. I still remember being in Istanbul and the call to prayer ringing out at the exact moment of the tip off in Game 3 of the Kings series, with the Warriors down 2-0 and Draymond Green suspended for his stomping of Sabonis. Steph dropping 50 in a Game 7 was a phenomenal feat. Then we got a Lakers series where we did have a shot but neither Jordan Poole nor Klay Thompson could make any (in contrast to Lonnie freaking Walker IV).

In retrospect a defending champion going out in the second round while valiantly battling is not an uncommon sight. It happened to Denver and Boston the last two years. But the 2023-24 season was the low point. Draymond suspended twice for his antics. CP3 on the roster while Klay visibly went downhill, frustrated, angry even in his contract year that the magic was leaving. The team was going nowhere. Then Coach Dejan Milojević died midseason, a tragic and awful event.

Since then we got an incredible experience at the Olympics where Steph captured the world. And while the first half of the 2024-2025 season felt like the same movie, the Warriors pulled out the Jimmy Butler trade breathing new life into the Warriors. The last few months of last season and ensuing playoff run were an amazing experience. Nothing gets old like beating the Houston Rockets on their own floor in a Game 7! I remain firmly convinced that if Steph had been healthy we’d have been in the Western Conference Finals last year and giving a young inexperienced Thunder team a run for their money.

This season it was over once Jimmy went down, and it was doubly over once Steph lost two-plus months to the ominous “runner’s knee”. Still we got a throwback performance in Los Angeles, detonating the Clippers and the last vestiges of their splashy flashy 2019 offseason-winning roster that was going to win all the titles and won precisely none, which sparked a reminder for me that this run all began off the back of the first round loss in Los Angeles and subsequent hiring of Steve Kerr (don’t leave us Steve!).

So all in all, my starting point is what we’ve seen over the last few years has been pretty, pretty good. One title, two genuine playoff runs, beating both the Rockets and Clippers on their home courts (my two most disliked rivals from the dynastic years), and an Olympic-sized cherry on top of the sundae. Go back to 2020 me and I’d bite your hand off for that.

We got to see some phenomenal moments, and experience that otherworldly joy of Steph Curry going off in a high-stakes game multiple times. Yes there were lows, but without those the highs mean so much less. Truthfully the 2018 championship is my least favourite for a reason. I’ll gladly take it of course, and it’s part of the story, but to me personally it doesn’t quite mean as much as the others.

Would I have wanted more? Of course. But I know I’m greedy. Steph Curry was 34 when he won NBA Finals MVP. He’s 38 now. Draymond Green is 36. Klay is gone and suffered two career-threatening injuries. Andre Iguodala is retired. Durant is gone and still salty af (otherwise he’d be here instead of Jimmy). We’ve been playing with house money the last few years. The NBA finalists for the last few years have been younger and younger teams, and this year might even be Wembenyama’s in just his third season. The next generation haven’t waited around. They’re taking it all.

But what about the two timelines?

There’s no denying it. With all that said above the now infamous “two timelines” experiment must be addressed. This was supposed to be the Warriors great plan to win now and win later. Now we are 6 years on from the 2020 draft, and 5 years on from 2021. Even if you were ok with the above, this was supposed to be the moment it really paid off.

Well, it didn’t. Taking Wiseman and Kuminga back-to-back was an unmitigated failure on the part of the front office.

But there is one enormous caveat in all of this. Had the Warriors done something different in those drafts, would they still have won the 2022 title? For example let’s say they’d taken Haliburton. He’d surely have played plenty in 2020-21. That would have eaten into Jordan Poole’s developmental minutes in the back end of that season. Would we have had the same Poole we needed to give us the scoring juice in the 2021-22 season and into the playoffs? Would Haliburton have been ready to step up that early? Sacramento traded him in the middle of that season! To me you can not separate out the post-title years because those drafts were before the title. Any different choice and you risk the butterfly effect. And there’s no way I’m trading the 2022 title for a better team now.

As for trades the most popular target through much of this window was Bradley Beal, a trade which have required Andrew Wiggins’ contract to be included (as almost all of the potential trades at the time did because of a lack of other large contracts to salary match, something everyone shouting about this conveniently forgets). Anyone here think we’re winning the 2022 title with the likes of Beal instead of Wiggins?!

Was it the wrong strategy or misalignment that doomed them?

I’d argue the two timelines experiment was at least in part a failure in execution rather than strategy. I was writing a lot at the time the Warriors were embarking on this plan. I’m not convinced there was ever a trade out there for the 2020 pick that they wouldn’t have gotten panned for at the time. Yes they should have traded down for Haliburton, who dropped inexplicably all the way to 12, meaning 10 other teams including the genius San Antonio Spurs passed on him. Or found a way to drop down a few spots and take my favourite Obi Toppin. Both would have been immeasurably better picks than Wiseman turned out to be.

But no-one, not even those of us who were pretty down on Wiseman at the time, thought he’d be out of the league in a few years. I certainly thought he’d have a decent NBA career, I just thought he’d take too long on a team that the last time I’d seen healthy almost won a championship, hence my shilling for the readiest fit in Toppin. And few teams were desperate to trade into that top 3 for a chance at the unproven Wiseman, or indeed LaMelo Ball who had plenty of teams worried.

As for 2021 and taking the talented but raw Kuminga over the more polished but seen as lower upside Franz Wagner. Well yes in retrospect that was the wrong choice. The Athletic published a piece this season stating the coaches wanted Wagner but the ownership and front office wanted Kuminga.

This points to the number one charge against the organisation where I personally find merit. They made a bold strategic choice but the strategic and operational sides were not aligned. So it came unstuck as it always does in any organisation that makes this cardinal business mistake.

For the record I refuse to include Moses Moody in such debates. A borderline starting caliber 3-and-D wing is decent value for the 14th pick. Sure there are one or two other players who have gone on to bigger careers. But there’s no way Sengun would have got on the floor that much under Steve Kerr with his awful defense. And Trey Murphy has had all he can eat on a bad Pelicans team giving him the development opportunities others have lacked.

Was the summer of 2023 the moment?

I find myself looking back and thinking where it could really have been different. The summer of 2022 certainly brought the grumblers out within a week of that epic title. The loss of GP2, pretty quickly rectified by unceremoniously dumping Wiseman and pulling the first plug on the two timelines experiment, was the chief charge. Letting OPJ walk was another pain point but he barely played in the league again and was replaced by DDV who was pretty good. They paid both Wiggins and Poole handsomely, with an enormous tax bill, and ended up with GP2 on the roster by the playoffs.

All in all the failed defense of the 2022 title had way more to do with Draymond’s punching of Jordan Poole and his subsequent cratering in performance than anything the front office did or didn’t do that offseason and we will never know the full story of that.

So my mind turns immediately to that window between the title defense ending in Los Angeles in the summer 2023 and the Jimmy Butler trade in February 2025. This is where the misalignment became more and more obvious and arguably they should have acted with more urgency and clarity.

There was an eighteen-month window in which the Warriors retained Kuminga as a young asset but one that Kerr didn’t trust on the floor in the 2023 playoffs despite a promising end to the season, and dumped Jordan Poole’s contract for Chris Paul. The summer of 2024 they let Klay Thompson walk to free up cap flexibility, and failed in a pursuit of Lauri Markkanen in part because they wouldn’t give up Podz, Kuminga and an Ainge-load of picks. Other targets that summer included Paul George. Undoubtedly we dodged a bullet there.

When I look back at that with the sort of hindsight which I don’t think is unreasonable I do wonder if they were perhaps too cautious. Right in the window of the Poole-Paul trade, Porzingis was moved to Washington for not a lot. Could they have gotten Porzingis for Poole and Kuminga? You’d think so, though no-one talked about it at the time. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but given how it panned out with Kuminga traded for a much less healthy Porzingis eventually, and how the Zinger helped Boston win the title that year that’s one to muse on.

The other Boston-related one was at the end of that summer when Jrue Holiday was on the block post-Lillard trade. There were some faint rumours of using CP3’s contract to get Holiday. Again Jrue went on to help Boston win that title.

Both of those players could have been helpful but would they have been the missing piece? Probably not enough on their own is the harsh truth with where Klay was, and Wiggins struggling with his own personal issues for much of this window.

Siakam was the other rumoured target throughout this window. He’s undoubtedly a very good player who helped the Pacers take OKC to Game 7. But it would have required Wiggins’ salary to match and a ton of assets especially as Toronto were rumoured to be not high on Kuminga.

But fundamentally the inclusion of Wiggins means no Jimmy. Maybe Siakam’s relative youth would keep the window open longer but Jimmy’s injury this season wasn’t really age-related and his fit was sublime. Would Siakam have been that much better than 2025 playoff Jimmy straight up, let alone the loss of Podz, Moody and a bunch of our draft capital? I’m not convinced though I appreciate that’s a finely balanced question.

Then there’s the Kuminga for Caruso possibility. Yeah they probably should have done that if for no other reason than to avoid the interminable 2-year drama that followed. But as winning a player as Caruso is, and proved to be for OKC, we were nowhere really in 2024 and by the 2025 playoffs the piece that might have made more difference with Butler in tow is a floor spacing big. In the bitter drawn out end that’s what Kuminga was eventually traded for in Porzingis.

The superstar chase

The only one I really wonder about now is Markkanen. He was on a low value contract right before his extension and they could have brought him in without using Wiggins’ contract which they subsequently used for Butler. If they had Markkanen and Jimmy Butler that might have been different last year.

But we don’t know the price point. Only that it was Podz, Kuminga and picks. To me the question of how many picks is the critical one. We’re dealing with Danny Ainge here so it wouldn’t have been nothing.

The Warriors will say they were holding on to those picks to stay in the superstar hunt. That they would have unloaded them for Kevin Durant. Which is true except he expressly did not want to come back. Or Giannis. Let’s see how this one shakes out but it also looks a suspiciously similar dynamic. I find it hard to believe that if Giannis had said I want to go to the Warriors at the trade deadline he wouldn’t be here now.

This to me is the number two genuine charge against the front office. Holding on to draft picks for a pipe dream rather than improving the team now.

Let’s face it who wouldn’t want Giannis? Or Durant back even at his age. But if it was never going to happen, zealously hoarding those picks when you could have made a move that got you closer to genuine contention was the wrong thing to do.

But look at who we’re really talking about here. Lauri Markkanen is a fine player and would have made the Warriors better, and fitted the system. So likely a good choice on paper. But he’s still only played 55, 47, and 42 games the last three years. Ok some of that has been down to Utah’s egregious tanking but he’s not Kevon Looney. Games aren’t won on paper. As we’ve found out with our ageing core you do actually need some 82-game players to make it to the final dance.

Trades win titles?

I get the clamour to unload the draft picks for one more heave. I feel it, believe me I do. I might have posted it a few times in slack chats. I certainly would have traded more than we did for Jimmy. Someone will probably post a trade idea in this thread and I’ll be like, “yeah f-it do it!!”

But let’s look at the last two title winners. Boston. Built off the Nets desperation “chuck-it-all-in” trade for Garnett and Pierce. Never forget that’s how the Celtics have Tatum and Brown.

OKC. Similarly fleeced the Clippers taking Shai and ALL THE PICKS (™). Worked out pretty well. For OKC, not the Clippers.

Therein is the cautionary tale. If you go all in, you’d better be right. And throughout NBA history it’s rare those trades actually pan out.

You know what did work for those teams? Patience and a little luck building through the draft. Then adding the likes of Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Porzingis, and Caruso.

Next up is the Spurs. Ok they got an enormous bit of luck with Wemby, all 7-foot-3 of him. But again patience and luck. A decent trade for a veteran in Fox.

Kind of reminds me of drafting Steph, Klay and Dray, then adding Bogut, Iguodala and Livingston across three years. That’s how you build a contender. That’s the playbook.

The new CBA

No relitigation of this journey is complete without at least a word or two on the new CBA. Jordan Poole’s extension was signed under the old one, as was Wiggins. No-one really knew how restrictive it would become. Previously the NBA operated with very much a soft cap where tax dollars could be spent freely and willingly. This was Lacob’s great gift to the franchise really. He spent as much as anyone could ever expect, and more, to put a winning team on the floor. He, and Rick Welts, built an entire business operation and shiny new arena specifically to do that.

Then, just as time began running out, the sands shifted. The NBA put a kibosh on this sort of thing with highly restrictive and complicated rules around aprons, essentially giving basketball a hard cap system in all but name. Suboptimal decisions had to be made to maintain flexibility whereas before you could spend, baby, spend. Draft picks, and the cheap rookie-scale contracts they come with, have become ever more valuable. That does explain some of the seeming overabundance of caution.

The Warriors success broke the other owners. They couldn’t take it. In my personal view the league is poorer for it. Dynasties drive the league. They bring in new fans. They force teams to sharpen themselves to rise to the occasion. But it is what it is - just another casualty of the Warriors dynasty.

The judgment

The Warriors front office have made a few mistakes, some bigger than others. To me the fundamental misalignment between strategy and operations in the execution of the two timelines strategy is the original sin, and maybe specifically (and I think you have to be specific to be fair rather than just whining) the caution around trading picks along with Kuminga and Podz for Markkanen in the summer of 2024. But we don’t know how many picks, and on the other side of the ledger they also brought in Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline that season for very little in terms of assets. That was a steal of a deal so if we’re examining the mistakes, they should absolutely get the credit for that.

I go back to where I started. In the ashes of 2019, or the depths of 2020. One championship, followed by two playoff runs including at least one with a genuine shot (last year), and ending the Rockets and Clippers seasons on their home floors in dramatic fashion in winner-takes-all games. I’d take that, draft busts be damned.

The reality is we are running out of time and have been for some time. This is the real reason the dynasty has faded. And that’s ok. Every day of Steph Curry’s career is a bonus. Father Time comes for us all and frankly it’s a miracle it’s not already over. Let’s savor what we have and hope for a few more flashes of the old magic before we have to say goodbye.