APRIBOT is our friend
I have been working on a new version of APRIBOT. As you may recall, APRIBOT is software I wrote to find comparisons for college players. This is particularly interesting for draft prospects.
Anyway, I’ve retooled her to produce rudimentary scouting reports and find NBA player comparisons. I also added guardrails to reduce some of the touchy temper and megalomania.
Previous scouting reports:
De’Anthony Melton is (probably) our friend again
As we know, free agency is on hold while the Jonathan Kuminga contract situation is resolved. The rumored GSW free agency signings are Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton and Gary Payton II.
Today, we let APRIBOT review Melton’s performance. He seemed to be a perfect fit last year until his season suddenly ended after only 6 games.
We’ll look at Melton (2023 and 2024) for a larger sample size, but everyone knows that his future performance is a mystery since he had ACL knee surgery on Dec 4 2024. If you believe in a recovery to pre-injury form, look at 2023. If you think he’ll be limited, look at 2024 (or worse).
Melton, before injuries (2023)
Melton was in fine form in 2022-23. He was an elite ball stealer, shot even more threes at an even better 3P%. He got it done on defense but also on offense, showing a good assist rate, effective shooting, and lots of minutes played. His comps are some outstanding defensive guards: Danny Green on the 2014 champ Spurs, Alex Caruso 2024, Sefolosha on KD-Russ OKC, and Marcus Smart in Boston.
The numbers are: standard deviations above/below mean (raw number, league percentile). Basketball-Reference glossary.
Scouting Report for De'Anthony Melton (2023) - Overall
**Elite:**
- 3P: +2.66 (157, 97th)
- 3PA: +2.52 (403, 97th)
- STL: +2.17 (126, 96th)
**Very Good:**
- 3PAr: +1.55 (0.619, 93rd)
- DBPM: +1.01 (1.6, 91st)
- DWS: +1.44 (3.1, 91st)
- GS: +1.09 (58, 78th)
- STL%: +1.33 (2.9, 95th)
**Above Average:**
- 3P%: +0.76 (.390, 84th)
- Age: +0.62 (24, 68th)
- AST: +0.51 (197, 78th)
- BPM: +0.50 (0.9, 79th)
- DRB: +0.54 (243, 77th)
- eFG%: +0.70 (.546, 84th)
- G: +0.90 (77, 77th)
- MP: +0.92 (2150, 78th)
- TS%: +0.64 (0.566, 79th)
- VORP: +0.76 (1.6, 85th)
- WS: +0.51 (4.2, 76th)
**Below Average:**
- FTr: -0.81 (0.134, 13th)
- PF: -0.83 (191, 23rd)
Top Similar Players to De'Anthony Melton (2023) - Overall:
Player Season Team Similarity
--------------------------------------------------------
Robert Covington 2018 PHI 0.9491
Kyle Korver 2005 PHI 0.9323
Jalen Suggs 2024 ORL 0.9323
Marcus Smart 2019 BOS 0.9275
Trevor Ariza 2015 HOU 0.9198
Danny Green 2013 SAS 0.9170
Donte DiVincenzo 2023 GSW 0.9129
Trevor Ariza 2016 HOU 0.9053
Alex Caruso 2024 CHI 0.9005
Robert Covington 2017 PHI 0.9000
Scouting Report for De'Anthony Melton (2023) - Among SGs
**Very Good:**
- 3P: +1.93 (157, 94th)
- 3PA: +1.84 (403, 94th)
- 3PAr: +1.20 (0.619, 89th)
- BLK: +1.88 (41, 95th)
- DBPM: +1.03 (1.6, 93rd)
- DRB: +1.43 (243, 91st)
- DWS: +1.98 (3.1, 95th)
- GS: +1.15 (58, 79th)
- STL: +1.90 (126, 96th)
- STL%: +1.04 (2.9, 93rd)
- TRB: +1.24 (312, 88th)
**Above Average:**
- 3P%: +0.64 (.390, 80th)
- Age: +0.57 (24, 66th)
- AST: +0.52 (197, 74th)
- BLK%: +0.77 (1.8, 92nd)
- DRB%: +0.58 (13.1, 80th)
- eFG%: +0.76 (.546, 87th)
- G: +0.91 (77, 78th)
- MP: +0.89 (2150, 77th)
- ORB: +0.86 (69, 84th)
- TRB%: +0.63 (8.6, 82nd)
- TS%: +0.68 (0.566, 82nd)
- VORP: +0.88 (1.6, 86th)
- WS: +0.69 (4.2, 79th)
**Below Average:**
- FTr: -0.74 (0.134, 17th)
- USG%: -0.55 (16.4, 30th)
**Bad:**
- PF: -1.13 (191, 15th)
Top Similar Players to De'Anthony Melton (2023) - Among SGs:
Player Season Team Similarity
--------------------------------------------------------
Jalen Suggs 2024 ORL 0.9106
Danny Green 2013 SAS 0.8899
Marcus Smart 2019 BOS 0.8789
Alex Caruso 2024 CHI 0.8760
Danny Green 2015 SAS 0.8735
Danny Green 2019 TOR 0.8618
Thabo Sefolosha 2013 OKC 0.8555
Donte DiVincenzo 2024 NYK 0.8554
Danny Green 2016 SAS 0.8529
Marcus Smart 2020 BOS 0.8516Melton, hampered by injury (2024)
Melton took a ton of threes and made them at an above average rate. He took care of the ball, which is important with Steph Curry on the team, and had a solid Defensive BPM and very high steal rate. However, he only played 39 games this season. Given that limited playing time, it’s astonishing that he hoisted as many threes as he did, shooting at a decent 3P% as well.
The comparisons are low-key amusing as it’s mostly a list of excellent guards but not in their best years. Which is what 2024 Melton was.
The numbers are: standard deviations above/below mean (raw number, league percentile)
Scouting Report for De'Anthony Melton (2024) - Overall
**Very Good:**
- 3PA: +1.01 (214.0, 84th)
- 3PAr: +1.44 (.594, 92nd)
- STL%: +1.33 (2.9, 95th)
**Above Average:**
- 3P: +0.97 (77.0, 84th)
- 3P%: +0.58 (0.36, 71st)
- DBPM: +0.78 (1.2, 86th)
- FT%: +0.80 (0.835, 83rd)
- TOV: +0.57 (39.0, 63rd)
- TOV%: +0.74 (9.0, 85th)
**Below Average:**
- 2P: -0.65 (62.0, 34th)
- 2PA: -0.61 (146.0, 36th)
- FG%: -0.55 (0.386, 20th)
- G: -0.66 (38.0, 26th)
- ORB: -0.55 (28.0, 38th)
- ORB%: -0.56 (3.0, 36th)
Top Similar Players to De'Anthony Melton (2024) - Overall:
Player Season Team Similarity
--------------------------------------------------------
Lonzo Ball 2025 CHI 0.8815
Jose Alvarado 2024 NOP 0.8561
Furkan Korkmaz 2021 PHI 0.8471
Carlos Delfino 2011 MIL 0.8385
Rudy Fernández 2010 POR 0.8369
C.J. Miles 2014 CLE 0.8355
J.R. Smith 2012 NYK 0.8320
Grayson Allen 2021 MEM 0.8304
Iman Shumpert 2013 NYK 0.8205
Jevon Carter 2020 PHO 0.8184
Scouting Report for De'Anthony Melton (2024) - Among SGs
**Very Good:**
- 3PAr: +1.07 (.594, 87th)
- STL%: +1.04 (2.9, 93rd)
**Above Average:**
- 3P: +0.50 (77.0, 74th)
- 3PA: +0.54 (214.0, 74th)
- DBPM: +0.82 (1.2, 89th)
- FT%: +0.57 (0.835, 73rd)
- TOV: +0.55 (39.0, 63rd)
- TOV%: +0.58 (9.0, 80th)
**Below Average:**
- 2P: -0.62 (62.0, 36th)
- 2PA: -0.59 (146.0, 37th)
- G: -0.62 (38.0, 27th)
Top Similar Players to De'Anthony Melton (2024) - Among SGs:
Player Season Team Similarity
--------------------------------------------------------
Grayson Allen 2021 MEM 0.7093
Rudy Fernández 2010 POR 0.7090
Iman Shumpert 2013 NYK 0.6973
J.R. Smith 2012 NYK 0.6924
Furkan Korkmaz 2021 PHI 0.6887
C.J. Miles 2014 CLE 0.6857
Alex Caruso 2025 OKC 0.6697
Alex Caruso 2022 CHI 0.6661
Jeremy Lamb 2021 IND 0.6647
Jaren Jackson 1999 SAS 0.6418Conclusion
How will Melton play? In short, no one knows anything.
My guess would be that his play would be comparable to his 2024 year when he was hampered by injuries. 2023 is a dream peak that we won’t see for at least a couple of years, if ever again.
But… if Melton were guaranteed to have a 2023 year again, then he would have been signed for way way more than GSW can afford. It’s only the uncertainty that is giving GSW a chance to sign him for the minimum (or at least below the Taxpayer Midlevel Exception).
I am wildly-expecting Melton to be awesome!
For everyone who isn’t watching our WNBA sister team in the Valkyries, yall are missing out.
It’s an incredibly fun time and we’re creating at the right time and I truly think we can beat any team other than the Lynx (the prohibitive favorite) in the playoffs so . . . I think we’re gonna be championship!!
Yall gotta hop on the bandwagon, we need all the noise we can get in Ballhala!!