Curry back!? Streaking Warriors expected to see their star return against Lakers

Warriors five game win streak shows the importance of internal improvement and opportunity

It looks like Stephen Curry is going to be back today as the Golden State Warriors head down to Los Angeles for a matinee visit against the LeBron James-less Lakers. The Warriors have won five games in a row and have bought themselves some separation from the bottom of the bracket and the play-in tournament. Sitting in fifth and thriving, the machine is humming along just in time to ease Curry back in.

Curry, who has been out since February 4th, has played only 38 of Golden State's 64 games - but the team has successfully tread water (and more). Andrew Wiggins will remain out for undisclosed personal reasons, so there’s still a key piece missing, and yet the return of the Warriors’ biggest star is always an extremely happy day.

There’s also some rumblings about a potential Andre Iguodala return, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Anthony Slater @anthonyVslater

Big news for the Warriors: Both Steph Curry and Andre Iguodala are probable tomorrow against the Lakers. Appears as if they are getting both back.

GAME DETAILS

WHO: Golden State Warriors (34-30) at Los Angeles Laker (30-34)

WHEN: Sunday, March 5th, 2023 // 12:30pm PDT

WATCH: ABC

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More minutes, more better: Kuminga, Looney emerging as a force

There has been a lot of focus on the Warriors front court. After the James Wiseman trade (for yet another guard) any doubts were removed about who could and could not play in coach Steve Kerr’s system. So if you weren’t paying attention, maybe you’ll be slightly saddened to know that Golden State won’t be filling their remaining roster spot with Nerlens Noel… or any other likely buyout candidate.

On the one hand, it’s crazy to not have a traditional “big” center - but on the other hand, traditions change. The Warriors have revolutionized the NBA in a generational way, and one aspect of that stands out is the identity of it all. Andrew Bogut gave some prophetic warnings about Wiseman not all that long ago about the limitations that traditional bigs operate under in Golden State.

Bogut said the Warriors will ask Wiseman to be "physical, grab as many rebounds as you can, protect the rim, and be a facilitator as a passer and a screener" instead of a volume scorer.

"You’re going to get a few lobs from that [role]," Bogut said. "I still think Wiseman can get three or four easy baskets a game. I think concentrating on that early in games for him will be important. The rest will come slowly. His development probably wont be as fast as it would on a bad team, individually."

But there’s been a noticeable factor recently at the center position coming from an unexpected duo. Kevon Looney and Jonathan Kuminga are killing it right now. Some of this is the removal of the elephant in the rotation that Wiseman represented, but a lot of it is also just the team filling in a bunch of open minutes while playing without Curry and Wiggins.

Check out the correlated rises in Kuminga’s minutes, points and rebounds. Some of this is “no duh” territory, but not everyone thrives when called upon to shoulder more load. Data is extracted from Cleaning the Glass, compiled by DNHQ for DNHQ:

Kuminga has been an emergent, reliable option for the Warriors

As Mrs. Dubs sits by me watching so many of these basketball games, she started talking about the role players, and how they’ve really stepped into the power vacuum created by the absence of mainstays, Curry and Wiggins. Here’s Kerr on Kuminga’s two way value after the last game, via Anthony Slater of The Athletic (emphasis blissfully added by me):

“He’s making some strides offensively,” Kerr said. “I liked that he was going to the rim and cutting and finding his way there. … The more he can attack and use his athleticism offensively the better. And I think he’s doing that. Then defensively, he’s by far our best option on Ingram.”

The emergence of Kuminga via quick cuts into power dunks and stout defense all over the court has been a more recent trend. It wouldn’t have happened as quickly without

The emergence of Kevon Looney from part time role player into critical dynastatic cornerstone has been a momentum that built over a considerably longer time. So yes, Looney is doing great right now, but he was also doing great early. A true bargain contract, the Warriors and Looney have found mutual benefit in a shared identity.

Here’s another cleaned up graphic I made off of some cleaned up data from Cleaning the Glass. This one shows Looney’s rebounding rate (the frequency of available missed shots he grabs) as a percentile rank among centers. He’s always been an elite offensive rebounder, but over the past few seasons he has brought his defensive rebounding rate up for a party at the top of the graph paper.

Or here are the same numbers as just a straightforward table with pretty colors. Remember, this is percentile rank amongst centers, with the more recent seasons towards the bottom of the table - so big numbers in dark orange are better. This season, Looney is in the 92nd percentile when it comes to rebounding his own team’s missed shots, and in the 86th percentile on the defensive glass. That’s not just good, that is down right great.

Now comes the next step that Mrs. Dubs was alluding to. These role players have really grown and developed - thriving in the absence of the primary reliable engines in Curry and Wiggins. Klay Thompson has returned. Jordan Poole looks like he’s back to the good side of crazy when it comes to his offensive moves. And even guys like Donte DiVincenzo and Kuminga have emerged as guys that belong in the Warriors playoff rotation.

Now it’s time to bring the main engine back online with Curry’s return, and put the final puzzle together for a strong push through the last month of the regular season with momentum that carries them strongly into the playoffs as the defending champs.

Just like they drew it up!

Prediction

The Lakers are a mess. One of my main criticisms of LeBron James is that much of his illustrious career is built on a pattern of slash and burn agriculture on a franchise scale. Rather than stay working through it like Curry and the Warriors, James has hopped around a bit. And at each stop, his presence causes this intense internal pressure to cash out all assets.

Los Angeles traded Russell Westbrook to Utah and reacquired guard D’Angelo Russell from Minnesota in a three-team, eight-player deal that went down at the trade deadline. I’m not sure how much it helps overall, but it was something. Russell is out with an ankle injury - maaaaaybe returning today. James is out as well, for at least three more weeks or so; leaving the Lakers in a tenuous position as the playoff race tightens up.

That’s not going to help today, not one bit. Warriors win another one, to welcome Curry back.