286 Comments

I flew to a different country and went to a restaurant called Otto. Calling a big game for the Little Dipper!!

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Otto (8) threes made!!!

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Jun 10, 2022·edited Jun 10, 2022

The Draymond Green Problem by Thinking Basketball

https://youtu.be/PG8-l7HEn1k

It’s pretty good base level dissection of Game 3 adjustments from Boston. Pretty much since Green can’t score in space or on the perimeter and barely scores inside, it’s literally 4 v 5 on offense Boston ignores him on D. I don’t expect Dray to find his shot miraculously. He’s a “I rather podcast than work on my shot in the gym” kind of guy. He even tries to justify it. He says “Gym? I’ve done that” on his podcast, but what he fails to see is that he should be in the gym every moment he has. He doesn’t have the Mamba mentality to practice and he never did. You’d expect Draymond to extend his career by solidify his jumpers but he even says on a podcast with Colin Cowherd that “basketball isn’t the most important thing in his life”. Doesn’t Steph deserve better teammates? I’d

be surprised if Draymond got paid more than 15-18 mill a year once his current contract is up. Anything south of that figure would be justifiable also. We should’ve jumped on a Ben Simmons trade for Dray. At least Ben has finishing ability at the rim. Besides Drays Screening and Passing, he ain’t really shit on offense. His Floaters are shotty, his declining athleticism makes his layups super easy to contest. Non existent jump shot. God dam. He’s failed this team man. This year he went from being my favorite since he took over the Starting role from David Lee, to the one I’m most annoyed with.

Smh he’s lost his way.

TLDR: Videos shows Boston giving Draymond the Tony Allen treatment on defense and it’s working for them, since Draymond can’t shoot.

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Both thinking basketball and bballbreakdown showed clips of him just not even trying man its fucked up and makes no sense, I said last year after his fuck up in the grizzlies play in that moving forward our team defense needs to be less reliant on draymond green.

I'd much rather start curry klay Wiggins porter looney and reduce greens minutes

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Thar would be a possible counter. It might even help on the rebounding end.

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I think it would take losing in the finals for green to be limited

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Half way there Dray…

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This has been done to the Dray before… Dray needs to be better engaged. That’s it. There are counters and the players and coaches know what to do…

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Memphis started to sag off Dray at the top of the key during their first few games. We adjusted by making Dray stand in the corner for the first few possessions of the game to drag his defender out of the fray. I wonder if we will see that again?

As for the 'basketball isnt the most important thing in his life", I just assumed he was referring to his family. Clearly he enjoys podcasting and if he does it as a hobby and it helps refresh his mind, then why not do it? I dont think his podcasting has anything to do with his last performance. I do think having a back injury mid-season, being older and being schemed against does.

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They’re literally ignoring him on D.

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Regarding podcasting, it infiltrates his mind. He is not 100% focused at the task on hand. He should be 100% focused on the game. It’s like prepping for a final exam, you have to use ur available study time efficiently.

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No Kobe? Cmon man he’s a top 10 goat.

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Apologies if someone posted this already TK proposing the use of Kuminga

https://theathletic.com/3357518/2022/06/09/warriors-jonathan-kuminga-celtics/?source=user_shared_article

If we do this, we got to use the KISS principle. KEEP IT SIMPLE. Simple offense and on ball defense for JK. Set the guy up to succeed and change to accommodate him. It will be interesting to watch if it does indeed happen

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Don’t have access to the article but based on your summary not opposed to this. The Celtics style is a bad match up for us but if we KISS, we still have the best player in the series. And a player like Kuminga may have been a significant improvement to some unengaged game 1 &3 Draymond minutes. Does Nick U’Ren approve?

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Just finished listening to Zach Lowe podcast. He thinks Dubs are gonna have monster desperation game to even the series.

Also he mentioned that Celt''s defense has taken away Warriors pet actions which as a result has taken away easy enough catch and shoot. And may be that's why Klay has struggled because he shoots best with catch-n-shoot. Dubs just gotta keep running these actions multiple times in same possession so as to elicit a mistake from Celt's D.

Let's hope Steph takes some magic potion and is pain free enough to have a monster game.

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Accept that the C’s defense is the main problem. People are acting like it’s Poole’s lack of heart that make Williams block him. Williams also plucked several rebounds over Dray because he’s TALLER. Yes, emotions matter, but our guys are not suddenly disinterested, old, lazy, or not passionate.

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Williams has 2" in height on Dray, 4 1/2" in wingspan, and better hops. He's one of the best shot blockers in the league. Especially when he's on the floor we can't go in on the Celtics like they're just an average defense. We have to make that extra pass, work around them. Once in awhile we do that and it works. We don't have players who can fight through them, with rare exceptions (sometimes Looney, potentially Kuminga if he plays but even he has to be smart about it).

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Poole is not lazy. He is having tunnel vision and is indecisive because of lack of experience. He dances around for 15 secs only to try to go.for layup against RW. Almost seems like Celts are funnelling him to RW.

I think he has got to play more like Steph when he brings up the ball half court and hands it to Dray/Andre for play making.

If not that, just bomb away 3s.

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Tunnel vision for sure. He is rushing with the ball in his hands and missed at least 2 Klay cuts last game

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Poole is definitely lazy on defense which makes mo sense because of his reputation of being the hardest worker

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Jun 10, 2022·edited Jun 10, 2022

I don't know if I'd call it lazy, he's twitchy in the bad way. He commits to every fake.

Better to say his defense is highly undisciplined.

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Definitely lazy on closeouts and rebounds

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I don't know what Dre has planned for the off season but if he has time and is willing, the Dubs should pay him to have a couple of weeks of defense camp for Warriors smalls and wings, with JP as student #1.

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Jun 10, 2022·edited Jun 10, 2022

Sometimes that is simply true. But if it was that simple, we’d expect James Wiseman to show up and fix that whenever he’s available. And you’d have expected Jokic to just inhale all the rebounds.

However, there was a play in the first quarter where Dray successfully challenged a Williams flip shot from just off the lower block. Dray had inside position, and instead of blocking out, he watched the ball and even took an unnecessary step toward the basket. The ball bounced over him, as it does when you’re standing right under the basket, and Williams had space to reach over him AND could leap wherever he wanted, while Dray had to jump back because he’d voluntarily gone too far under the basket. Williams got an easy putback in what should have been a defensive rebound. It’s these plays that need to be cleaned up. Gave away 2 free points.

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That play pissed me off a great deal. All he had to do was box out. Lack of focus and effort.

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Starting to wonder.

It’s tough to judge, but the Warriors having so many days off before and between finals games May have put them in a mid rest cycle, and it’s not that they aren’t trying to bring it, but that some guys can’t on certain days because their muscles just aren’t able. I’ve often wondered how NBA teams deal with extended layoffs between playoff games, and it’s starting to look like they might have to take a ride the hot hand concept with guys who actually have the zip in a given game since everyone responds a bit differently to reduced workloads.

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Yea that really stuck out didn’t it! And a few of the long rebounds could have been mitigated in the same way if the guys guarding the perimeter players put a body on their guys when the shot went up too. Team effort on the fundamentals please!

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Yes, but

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Too early to tell but feels like we lost the series in G1-Q1 when we didn't adjust and kept playing drop coverage.

BTW - Why isn't Kerr playing Moody given how Poole is playing?

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No playoff outcome is predicated on one quarter. The strategy since game 1 has been sound, but they guys didn’t bring the intensity (other than Steph, Loon and sometimes Wiggs) to get it done in Game 3.

We need JP for play making. A couple of years too early for Moody to be doing that for us in the Finals. Wish he could though!

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Maybe it’s intensity, or maybe it’s just sound fundamentals they need to bring if they can’t sustain the borderline maniacal intensity of game 2.

More than just Looney boxing out last game would have been extremely helpful. Several “unlucky” bounces that led to extra Boston possessions would have been mitigated if there was a team commitment to putting your body on the nearest man when the shot went up. One of Williams’s rebounds that occurred from behind Green would have been impossible if Green had bumped him first and then gone strong to the ball instead of drifting softly towards the rim. For some reason I expected the Warriors to be the more fundamentally sound team in the finals, and it’s not too late. With the way the Celtics are playing Steph, any kind of discipline on the Warriors parts should lead to resounding victories (assuming Steph’s health.)

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Jun 10, 2022Liked by Daniel Hardee

Can’t wait for tomorrows game. The ultimate test for this squad. Time is now Dub Nation. LETS GO

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Betting odds are on Boston for Game 4 win.

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You putting some $ on the Warriors?

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No, I never bet.

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Home advantage is 3.5 points on betting lines.

The Celtics are at -4.

That is basically a pick-‘em. Hardly an indication that Vegas likes Boston.

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they are picking Boston to win the series

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Jun 10, 2022·edited Jun 10, 2022

Because the Celtics have a 2-1 advantage currently.

Why in God’s green earth would you expect them to make the team leading the series an underdog? That is a sure way to open themselves up to a risk they don’t want to expose themselves to.

If Boston was a plus money proposition on the money line right now, every competitive bettor would be putting tens of thousands on the Celtics to win. Why? Because it would be a good bet from a pure value standpoint. And if it cashes, Vegas loses huge.

Vegas will never expose themselves to that risk and that potential loss. That’s not what Vegas does. Vegas lines are all about getting as close to the same action on both sides of the betting line as possible, to minimize losses. It has nothing to do with how they see the series going.

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Jun 10, 2022·edited Jun 10, 2022

In pure probabilistic terms, the chance of flipping at least three heads in four tosses (which is what a team down 1-2 has to do) is 31%. So if two teams are exactly evenly matched, the team up 2-1 should be slightly better than 2-to-1 favorites.

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I don't

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Uhhh… yeah, they’re at home. That’s expected.

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Not really. Depends on matchups and how they implement their game plan. Poor execution is usually going to lose and every team loses games at home. At least let us make the game competitive. That's all I'm asking.

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Both losses were competitive. I expect that to continue.

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not competitive when it counted. they choked and let both game slip away. Competitive to me means all game, not parts of it. Green better start playing instead of talking.

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There’s always an ebb and flow. Draymond certainly can’t play like shit for even one more game.

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This is a very complimentary take on Steph from Boston.

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2022/06/09/steph-curry-celtics-defense-nba-finals/

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WTF is this article?!?!?! A reasonable, humble take? That’s not going to get the writer ANYWHERE NEAR the clicks they’re going to need to stump for a big money national media gig…

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I had a random thought that kerr knows the adjustment he needs to make but saved them for game 4 since we came out with low effort n boston was firing on all cylinders. I think he gave poole one more chance to see if he could produce because he knows we only need to steal 1 game in boston to make it a 3 game series with home court advantage

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Jun 10, 2022·edited Jun 10, 2022

If we see Poole with a competitive (read: non garbage time) minutes cap of 15, then I will know Kerr and the coaching staff have finally adjusted to the realities of the series and are ready to win.

If we see Poole out there for 25-30 mins while the game is in the balance, then we know the coaching staff will give us no help in winning the series, and we will need Steph/Klay/Dray to basically hero-ball us to a chip.

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They certainly need a shorter lease on him. Only time I’d play Poole are non Robert William minutes.

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Game 2 he didnt play much in the first half then came in hot third quarter n played alot of garbage time minutes in the fourth, he was definitely benched game 2

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That one's hard to believe.

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Hopefully that is true. Gotta take the win tomorrow.

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Bjelieve!!!

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I really hope you’re right. But that’s playing with fire. If Poole sees fewer minutes in game 4 then you’ll at least be half right.

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Size, athleticism, & age:Advantage Boston. Experience, sharp shooting, playmaking:Advantage Dubs. Both teams are prone to mistakes, TO's, missed FT's. Brown is possibly the wild card along with Derek White for Boston. When those two are playing well, Boston usually wins. Warriors have some deficiencies that mar their game, every game. TO's, disappeared players, sluggish starts and choking during periods of the game. They rarely play a complete game as the Warriors. This could simply be age along with the offensive decline of Green and Poole not being able to step up offensively and defensively yet. Boston looks like the tougher team. They seem almost tireless while Looney sometimes looks like he is going to drop dead on the floor, no disrespect meant to him. Love his play. Running on fumes is rarely recommended and the memories of championships past only goes so far. You either bring it or you don't to each game. The Warriors haven't.

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Our players need the hunger and some luck from the basketball gods.

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And some non calls on ticky-tacks from refs

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Yes, they need to change their Warrior girls. lol

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Jun 10, 2022·edited Jun 10, 2022

I think people are over-analyzing the 3 games thus far and blaming stuff on our offense when our offense has been great. Across 3 games, our ORTG with Steph on the court has been 116.8. For context, the best ORTG in the regular season this year had an ORTG of 116.2.

Our problems have not really been on the offensive end, but that:

1. Draymond Green is playing a terrible series, both offensively (expected) and defensively (WTF?).

2. This in large parts is leading to their offense being pretty goddamn good too. We're not winning the series unless we stop them. Their defense is incredible, their offense isn't. We have no hopes of winning this series unless we start defending significantly better.

3. Our offense without Steph is at a frigid 91.5 ORTG, which would be the worst offense in the past 50 years in the league.

4. They're shooting 43% from 3 for the series. Regardless of the quality of their looks (which imo has been pretty damn high), that's unsustainable.

So for us to win, we need:

1. Steph to be healthy

2. Steph to maintain his level of performance

3. Dray to be much much much better

4. Shooting variance in our favor

Would help if Draymond played like he actually gave a shit which hasn't seemed to be the case for G1 and G3.

And minimize Poole minutes please. It's not his series.

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This is excellent. The one thing I think I would disagree with is that I think their three point shooting is sustainable (maybe not at 43%, but better than average).

I would never be able to find the evidence to back this up, but I wonder:

1. The Celtics started the season very, very poorly, so I wonder if their overall regular season number (36%) is dragged down by their early season struggles, which they have long since solved.

2. In the playoffs, they are actually shooting better (37.2%), which I did not expect ... still less than 43%, but given the small sample size in our series (3 games), probably not too far off.

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Co-signed

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I don't disagree with your points but I would modify/add a bit. Yes Draymond has been bad, and he's our defensive linchpin, but when our defense is sharp it's because multiple players are defending vigorously and well. So when the Celtics drive right through us like a hot knife through butter, that's about more than Draymond. I'm puzzled by Looney playing less than 17 minutes in game 3; he would help a lot there. And if we're going to see less Poole, maybe more Moody would help. He's a rookie but he doesn't make many mistakes, and he can defend better than JP. But a big thing is that in game 3 we got flat outhustled. They got the boards, they got the loose balls. Plus we turned it over more, and although we often do that and win anyway, the Celtics are the best defense we've faced, and we can't afford these mistakes.

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True. Warriors need to bring their A game every game. Somehow, they don't do it. Maybe they can't do it any longer. We'll never know because athletes always have a higher opinion of themselves and their teams than is actually the case. We also lack a dominant force other than Steph on this team.

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Klay is overrated and Green has lost a lot over the years. Besides Steph, who've we got that can take over a game? I mean on both ends? Wiggs is not that guy. Poole could be that guy but seemingly not yet.

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Jun 10, 2022·edited Jun 10, 2022

Yes, the negatives from our playoff run this year have been the fact that Green and Klay (at least this version of him, he may improve next year) are not good enough to be the 2nd and 3rd best players on a title team.

Even this year, I'd say Wiggins has been our 2nd best player for the entire playoffs (obviously series-by-series it varies), which is a WILD statement to say for a title team lol.

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Poole can barely get by anybody on the Celtics not named Horford or Theis. Even when he does he gets stuffed at the rim by Timelord.

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As I said, he's not that guy yet.

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Jun 10, 2022·edited Jun 10, 2022

You know and I know it but Steve Kerr is stubborn to a fault. If Poole gives us 15 mediocre minutes a game we should be happy, why he plays 25 minutes when he’s been so bad is just the staff js coaching us into the ground. Split the rest of the minute somewhere else.

We’ll see OPJ eat up more minutes once his minutes restrictions are removed. Games 5 and beyond anything goes. Play Steph 42-44 minutes if you have to. The way they play Iggy is fine. Looney can certainly play more than 16 minutes a game Steve dammit. We throw in all our chips. Put our god dam bodies on the line.

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This is why we have Andre - https://www.reddit.com/r/warriors/comments/v8t8ke/leadership/

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That Final’s Mvp he got is really going to serve him well for the rest of his career in whatever he does..

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In a slight change to a quote from earlier in this current Warriors' team run:

"Dray gonna Dray..." And I really think the Warriors are a better team for it!

Just like "Steph gonna Steph..." even with some loopy telegraphed passes and ill advised shots (including last night) he still scores and leads the team- now into the game 4 of the Finals. And

"Klay gonna Klay..." with a some forced shots and surgically repaired legs that may not move as well on defense etc.- there are also some amazingly hot streaks that have carried the team.

I'll take all of what Draymond brings to a basketball game as being good for the Warriors 95% of the time, just like I will take Step and Klay's overall contributions to winning games.

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Jun 9, 2022Liked by Eric Apricot, punk basketball

Having a dynasty is extremely rare. Going to 6 finals in 8 years is extremely hard. We can expect these guys to be mentally locked in game after game against this good a team. But may be they are just cooked and outmatched given Klay's limitations and our main players being older by 8-10 years. We gotta ride with our guys. (except in game thread 🙂). No matter. They are not perfect. They are human. Win or loose these finals, love what these guys did this year.

That's all I got.

Let's get G4.

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I’m afraid this might be Curry’s last chance to get a finals mvp. Because if we do come back to the finals, I expect it’s because one of the baby dubs will have a monster ascension and Curry will take on an old dog’s role.

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What I'm seeing ain't no old dog. If we have a similar path next year, we will likely have a healthy James Wiseman, and that could be the difference (a fast seven footer would do wonders for us right now).

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That will not be the difference. There are no minutes he would play in these Finals or next playoffs where the team isnt better off playing Looney (by a substantial margin, imo). Some might really be taking for granted that there are more Finals appearances to come once Curry/Klay/Draymond are done being a Finals-caliber core. No time like the present to win a ring.

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Jun 9, 2022·edited Jun 9, 2022

Do you disagree that a fast seven footer would make a huge difference right now? Granted, Wiseman next year won't be as good as RWIII is this year (much less experience for one thing), but he should be able to give us a presence in the post that we obviously need as well as bolster our fastbreak game.

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Not in general. I strongly disagree that Wiseman in particular would make any positive difference though. Kuminga cannot get on the floor and he might be better right now than Wiseman will be next season.

There is no one out there in this series with a below average feel for the game, I do not really see a place for that type of player in this series.

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I'm specifically talking about Wiseman with the 2022-2023 RS under his belt. I think that will be a net positive player or at the very least someone who could do the things I mention.

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If we can even get back to the finals. Clippers will be better, Memphis is getting better, Mavs will be better. Getting to the finals isn’t a given. If we can get back within the next 2 years and win then Steph might have a shot at finals mvp, that’s the only thing he’ s missing for his Legacy. He’s only getting older man, 35 next year. I don’t expect him to keep everything up there should be a gradual drop off in Steph soon. Father time always wins. Whether a dropped off Steph can still be the best player on a team that wins the Championship will need to be seen.

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Poole will be better, Moody will be better, Kuminga will be better and Wiseman will be part of things. Or some of them are traded maybe with a draft pick for a big new piece. I wouldn't assume that this is our last shot with this core.

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Poole is match up limited, his defense I doubt will be that much better, he should be better finishing over bigs next year. Okay say Moody and Kuminga gets better but Curry gets older n slower, we lose OPJ, it kind of a wash. Klay offensively is what we’re goiing to get from him he’s hitting career averages, his defensive might get slightly better as he shapes into form. Green is washed offensively he’s certainly passed his prime. Wiseman is barely playable as is, if we expect him to be able to go from Z to A in one season we’re certainly blessed by the Draft Gods. I’m not quite sure we’ll do any trading of our baby dubs. We may not get any better next season, and if we do it’ll be marginal.

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Jun 9, 2022·edited Jun 9, 2022

Wiseman has been *injured* and I think you and others are way selling him short. A marginal improvement on a Finals team (that may yet be a champion) is a big deal.

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Daniel Theis didn't get any minutes except during garbage time. I think that along with the Celtics attacking the paint frequently were the adjustments Udoka made in game 3.

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Yup, those strong 2 foot jump stop drives while putting a shoulder onto the defender were annoyingly effective.

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Why wasn't that whistled?

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Finals

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