Cap analyst Danny Leroux on possible Warriors moves, with Sam and Andy; plus open thread

Looking for a difference maker

Longtime Warriors analyst Danny Leroux joins Sam and Andy on the Light Years Podcast to discuss many topics. I’m pulling out an interesting section about offseason GSW moves.

How good a player can GSW get?

Sam Esfandiari: What is your preferred option for what they do with the Chris Paul contract slot? … My preferred is still, they aggregate him to get a true difference maker … — in my mind it would be someone better than Brandon Ingram — and deal with whatever the fallout is with Klay.

Danny Leroux: The challenge for the Warriors on this, which I think is underappreciated, is that they also have to throw assets in that deal. Kuminga would obviously be an important part of theoretically any, any one of those deals, but it's not like the Warriors are flush with first round picks. They owe this one to the Blazers, and then they have that weird thing at the end with the Wizards where it's a #20 - #30 thing. It's actually not that juicy what the Wizards are getting, but it does constrain things a little bit.

They could theoretically throw it enough for somebody like Ingram. Somebody who's like a third through fifth starter. I think that's probably realistically what you're gonna get. The idea of getting somebody who's like a huge difference maker, like those guys, (a) aren't really on the market and (b) are going to be coming at a high premium. I also, you know, if we're talking about watchability, I'm not the biggest Brandan Ingram fan.

And then in terms of below 30 million, I don't have a specific target in mind. If they're willing to spend it, somebody like Jeremi Grant would actually help them. Because Grant could be the four next to Draymond as like the five and those small lineups and defend a little bit, but Grant’s money over so many years is just a lot. And so you get into all that type of stuff. I haven't gone through like all the different things.

This is going to make Andy not want me to run the Warriors. If it were my decision and let's say I'm owning and running the Warriors, I probably would just say it's time and not use the Chris Paul trade exception at all and see if you can get Klay and duck under for a year or two.

Andy Liu: Is there a long-term benefit or are you just not trying to spend money?

Danny: So the long-term benefit: it does reset some of the counters, some of the clocks in terms of like the frozen picks and all that type of stuff.

Using the mid-level exception

But it's also theoretically using the mid-level exception. This actually could be a really good year to have the mid-level because there aren't that many teams that are going to have cap space. The cap is about to go way, way up with the new TV deal. Like the Knicks ended up with Donte DiVincenzo, you can end up with a player on a three or four year deal. The non-tax payment mid-level this year, that's going to be like low end rotation money by the end of this contract. So if you can have that and you can get a player that you correctly identify can help you, then you're going to be looking at that as positive. And like, that's a good place for the Warriors to be. It's not the sexiest thing to be sure.

I'm just being practical. Like if the goal is to have the best team possible, of course you maximize the exceptions. You maximize Chris Paul, you maximize all that type of stuff. It's just like, for me, I don't think it's out there for them. It's the simultaneous problem of who is a difference maker that the current team is willing to give up and also to think that the Warriors offer is the best for it and makes sense with all that. For selfish reasons — you know, I attend Warriors games myself — I would love for that to be the path. Just, at a certain point when the team has been as expensive as the Warriors have been, I'm sympathetic.

Trading for a player at the end of their rookie contract

The other thing that would be an interesting path for the Warriors to go down is: we're focusing on the high salary scale. But the idea of if you're willing to throw in that kind of asset, would you be willing to do it for a player who's still on the rookie scale contract? Jalen Suggs is an example. of it. So the idea is like, if you're willing to throw two or three first round picks into a deal, maybe you don't need to get a $30 million guy. Maybe you get a $10 million guy, and who is more in line, who's still good now, who's still in this, it's not like they're trash, but who is more in line with Kuminga and everything else. Because one of the challenges that the Warriors have to deal with is: who's going to be their best player on the next great Warriors team? Not the next good Warriors team, the next great Warriors team. Not on the roster, but these assets might be a way to get that.

Trade the picks and the Paul contract for someone on the second or last year of his rookie contract. That's what you're saying. Who would that be? Mobley?

Sam: Go get LaMelo Ball.

Danny: You're saying it, not me, but maybe. But the idea of basically getting somebody who makes sense with where you see the team going. And who can help you right now?

The other thing you could do is you can also hold those assets for a little while longer and make those valuations a year or two from now, if you want, with that structure.

… And the dream here, which almost never happens, is that you're Houston and you're finding the next OKC James Harden. And usually that's not going to happen. That's happened once in the last 20 years where you traded for a bench guy and then he became an MVP. But the idea of “this guy is good, this team doesn't appreciate how good he is”, there are those types of players. And the nice thing for the Warriors is they have the resources that they want to throw in with something like that. And so can you make that evaluation? And one thing I'll say is it's generally easier to do that when a player is already in the NBA than when they're a draft prospect.

Sam: You mentioned the mid-level exception. At this point, all any fans talking about is like, how can they go get a big fish or that sort of thing? But you are correct. That's the most likely path that they could open up. Are there any names that jump out at you?

Danny: He's dealing with a back issue right now, but De’Anthony Melton is the guy that I'm thinking of. And Melton, he's a very capable defensive player. He can fill the defensive role that Klay did prior, and he's not gonna have the ball in his hands very often. And Melton now, even if a lot of people don't trust it, he shot well from three, I think it's three or four years in a row now, and on a reasonable volume. He's not Klay, but he's doing that. And so you can theoretically use that, and he's gonna be undervalued, not only because he's been dealing with his injuries, but because he's a lower offensive role guy. Those players typically get underpaid. And so Melton is one that stands out to me as somebody who could really help them.

Naji Marshall, I really like. Basically any wing on the Pelicans is probably gonna be underappreciated and maybe underpaid on that.

And then there are a lot of offense first two guards that are actually pretty good. I think that a lot of the group, Lonnie Walkers and Malik Beasleys and all that, like those guys are better, but I don't think they're better for the Warriors because the Warriors, they need something a little bit more balanced, a little bit more complete from that spot than those guys.

And I mean, the other thing that would be great is you add somebody maybe more on the forward line. I'm a Haywood Highsmith guy. I think that he can defend and maybe he can make enough threes. It's funny, these like big defensive guys that shoot a few threes, but like the Warriors don't need players who generate a ton of offense because they have Steph Curry for that. So as long as Steph Curry is Steph Curry, and if he's not, well, then you're dead in the water anyway. So you don't need to obsess about that too much.