24 Comments

Pass on both

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Good to see some disagreement here. I see 4 Es, 2 Fs. No shame in later regretting your choice... this whole exercise is to help one see ones own biases... I would have gotten #1 wrong I think... the whole immaturity thing is a red flag for me, but would have prevented me from drafting Garnett...

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Ignoring the scouting reports for a moment, Player E pales in comparison to Player F when it comes to scoring (20 vs 26), rebounding (13 vs 15), and blocks (6 vs 8). If Player F was able to do that while being rail thin (which can be fixed with an NBA regimen) then sign me the heck up. Regarding Player E, he may have some interesting traits, but its not translating to in-game production which is incredibly frightening considering it was mentioned that he didn't really face a high level of competition in high school. If you couldn't dominate a lower level of high school competition, why should I think you'll come in and produce in the NBA? This is perhaps the easiest round so far. Player F over Player E by FAR.

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Pass on E, take F

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I think the weight issue goes the other way on this comparison. Quite a few skinny 7 footers simply get out muscled in the NBA. E sounds like he had an NBA body, and I'd guess that good coaches could teach a guy how to play the low post, so I'll go with E.

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Off topic again:

Warriors achievable trade targets:

Oladipo?? He’s almost certainly going to be on the market. He’s an injury risk for sure but I’d rather have him than Embiid in that front, and the Warriors could probably get him for picks and filler at$21m/yr they only need $4m over the exception. Super small ball lineup to trash the rockets:

Curry, Oladipo, Klay, Wiggins, Green?

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Both actually sound decent this time... giving the edge to E, due to having good body, defence, touch as well as passing, with only weakness being low post offense (which isn't that big of an detraction, esp. in the modern game). F still looks decent and the most eerily similar to Wiseman of all the mystery players so far (super athletic 7 footer, tall and skinny in high school, reluctance to bang inside, wants to be Garnett, motor/maturity questions). Actually, F still looks better than Wiseman given positive mentions of passing and touch... Seeing these reports honestly makes me less bullish on Wiseman within the context of modern game and Warriors needs. Either Edwards (if available), or trade down to #4-8 (to pick up Vassell/Deni/Hali) seems like the smarter move...

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People are wondering how devious or Socratic I am in devising these Beat The Draft games. My usual pattern is to pick some objective process and then try something else if it doesn’t make a good game that I like. In this case, I found eight prospects I wanted people to look at, and I settled on this process: I ordered them by career win shares and faced off 1 v 5, 2 v 6 etc. That was to ensure the least ambiguity about who was the better player... so I didn’t have 4 v 5 face off, for instance. I did have to tweak it a little in ways I’ll explain in the wrap up , but that’s basically it.

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Way off topic, but the Bucks are officially boycotting their playoff game

> @wojespn

The Bucks players made this decision in the wake of the Jacob Blake shooting in Wisconsin, ultimately deciding that they wouldn't leave the locker room for the start of Game 5 against Orlando.

> @wojespn

· 7m

The Milwaukee Bucks have decided to boycott Game 5, source tells ESPN.

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I actually like both of those descriptions. I love passers as I think they understand the game more holistically, and that matters more in the pros than anything else. I’ll go with E, but don’t love the state semis loss with the inferior competition review.

F has a good statline and I’d be really high on him if it weren’t for the NBA “conditioning program’s” tendencies to over load guys with this body type with too much muscle too fast and injure the hell out of them: Issacs in Orlando anyone?

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Glad to know last round was as straightforward as it seemed. Turns out the scouts have their jobs for a reason, and Apricot (somtimes?) isn't a nefarious pug!

This round is tougher. Interesting that both players get dinged for not playing well with their back to the basket. (IMO, not as big an issue as scouts make it out to be.)

Physical attributes: Player E has good height/weight and his "freakish" yet "graceful" speed and agility are promising. Player F is a bit thin, but if you ask me, that's one of the things that a professional NBA diet and training routine can improve most easily. Advantage: player E.

Stat line, accolades & competition: I like that Player E has some assists and steals in his repertoire. Player F has more points, more blocks, a better high-school record against seemingly stronger competition, and more awards. Advantage: player F.

Secondary skills: It sounds like Player E's ball-handling, passing, and jumper are more developed. Player F's ball-handling seems like a weakness, but his passing and free-throwing are respectable at least. Advantage: player E.

Intangibles: Reading between the lines, Player E's BBIQ isn't at a high level yet; he makes suboptimal plays habitually. The scouts question player F's maturity and effort. I find the former concerns more convincing than the latter. Advantage: player F.

Summary: Very tough call between two promising prospects. Player E's more physically developed and has a wide range of skills at a high level. Player F's skills and physique are more raw, but ironically his overall basketball ability is better tested. If I had to guess, Player F will take a couple years longer to reach his peak, but his weaknesses are easier to compensate for and his strengths are harder to match. Meanwhile, Player E seems more well-rounded, and profiles like someone who's already in the NBA but not a star. Still, good coaching and gradual improvements could take him to a very high level.

It's a really tough call, but I'm going with Player E. Ultimately the stronger all-around skill set (especially passing and ball-handling) weighed heaviest in my decision.

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