I don't know about you guys, but there's a certain 6'9" playmaking forward with perimeter threat that's also an option and likely has a lower chance of being a bust.
Nobody's (well, Bob Myer's has) really talked about the financial commitment for a relative unknown. If they have confidence in the pick, they'll spend the money - otherwise, it's a trade-down.
Despite the trend for small-ball, I don't think you can lose by getting an active, athletic big man. The Dubs will undoubtedly hire a big man "Steve Nash" to consult with the organization if they pick Wiseman.
Great exercise. I'd still prefer a trade down to draft a versatile wing defender who can shoot (W's greatest need) and tradable picks or another rotation player. But if they draft him 2nd, would I be excited about Wiseman's potential given the comparisons in this exercise? Hell yeah.
Still ended up choosing O'Neal over Wiggins in the final game, and overall this game was super interesting, but didn't really change my view on Wiseman, as my original thoughts were thought he's probably going to be good in a few years (and is probably lower risk than Edwards or Lamelo over the long run), but is very raw right now and would offer less in the near-term than Edwards, or even a Avidja/Vassell/Haliburton. Also, a lot of the players in this game were from earlier days, where big centers were more valuable and less exploited, so I think you have to downward adjust that in modern game. Looking at recently drafted lottery centers, you have Ayton and Bagley who are more traditional types and have underperformed relative to other picks around them, plus picks like Len and WCS who are basically busts. The ones who have done really well all have a notable unicorn/once in a generation skill, such as shooting for KP, passing/switchability for Bam, playmaking for Jokic, overall generational defence and offence for AD, generational post work for Embiid etc. Wiseman doesn't stand out on any skill, just on his overall athleticism (but lateral movement hasn't popped either). TLDR; still not sold on Wiseman as #2 pick for us, would prefer Edwards (if MIN trades down, which seems decently likely), or trade down to #4-8 to grab a wing + additional assets.
I think there are too many scenarios that would work for the Warriors for me to settle on just one. Drafting Wiseman would work for me as long as they use their TPE and Midlevel wisely. I could also see them parlaying the #2 pick into a trade bringing a player or two and some lower picks in this draft. And, I can see them going with Lamello with the same caveat as I mentioned with Wiseman. No one is going to come in and be ready to start on the Warriors in the draft. Only desperate teams have to plug in rookies right away. It's the peripheral trading of assets that will make the big difference in the upcoming season. We also have a top pick next season!
On bluemanhoop, Pesta listed 8 trades that made sense, some more than others. I suggest people go and have a look and consider some of these. Some are very clever and convincing.
I'm not going to lie, this has been a fairly interesting exercise. I was right in all of the games, except for the last one where I passed on both missing on Jermaine O'Neal. This has made me a little bit more comfortable with the Wiseman selection, though I've always been relatively comfortable with that selection since it provides us with much-needed rim protection. My main concern is, if we draft Wiseman, we need to make shooting an absolute priority come to Free Agency. Because at this moment, we have far too many people in our lineup who are terrible from distance and the three-pointer is the great equalizer we need since our defense is unlikely to be dominant.
I don't think it's surprising or an accident that one of the two rounds where I decided to pass on both players is the one that had Wiseman in it. And it's cool that the other guy eventually became an all-star, but can we afford to draft someone who needs 4 years to develop?
It's nice to know that 7' players with some skills and high school success rarely fail in the NBA, and that makes sense. I think I'm with you, that I'm more comfortable with the Warriors picking Wiseman after this exercise. In fact, I could see him being a pretty good option to have in the rotation right away, a younger/fresher/rawer JaVale type player. But I still am more excited for an option like Haliburton or Okongwu, especially in the modern NBA with the players the team already has. Largely that's probably because I'm high on Chriss and Looney and small-ball in general as the future of the game.
That said, I think it'll be very interesting to see how the Lakers do the rest of this postseason, because their roster is bringing the highest level of truly "big" basketball play right now: they regularly put three players 6'9" and above on the court at the same time, among AD, Howard, & McGee, with Lebron as "point" and Danny Green and Kuzma as their other big-minutes players.
There are lots of other notable big guys in the league, too: a hypothetical finals matchup with Milwaukee is a concern since Giannis + Lopez is a massive side advantage over our current roster. I'm not worried about Porzingas in Dallas, or Philly in general, or OKC with Steven Adams. Jokic's pass-heavy style in Denver I think demands more disciplined defending than just "banging and bumping." Also in the West we have Gobert to deal with, the Clippers have undersized center Harrell alongside up-and-coming big guy Zubac, and Ayton's progress in Phoenix will be something to watch as well. The big center isn't really who you need to look out for when facing teams like Houston, Portland (sorry, Nurkic), Memphis, or New Orleans. So, survey says, a 7-foot center (or PF) is a good role to fill in your rotation, but not the cornerstone of most contenders. Given that the draft is always a toss-up, a player like Wiseman whose floor is fairly high and ceiling is higher is probably a fine way to use a high draft pick. I think a lot of us are maybe a little too scarred by the futility of the Damian Jones project to recognize how different a lottery-quality big man can be.
Great game. I ended up passing on the heavy guys, so I got that right. But I ended up with Dwight Howard, Kwame Brown, and... James Wiseman.
Having read your write up, I think I'm largely persuaded. A serviceable big man with a lottery ticket for something more; I think I can live with that. It also brings in a talent on a rookie contract (so it's cheaper) and it keeps the Ws from being loaded up with too many guys who expect to star and might not being willing to do the dirty work.
If Simmons or Giannis become available, I suppose you don't pass, but I worried about the Hamptons version of the Ws. Those guys made it work, but it seemed like the deferring got a little old. Better to have more guys who contribute and do the dirty work than to have an elite few.
great exercise thx eric. assuming MN takes edwards #1 i'm thinking wiseman or onkongwu as best big possibilities and haliburton or hayes as backcourt player options
I don't know about you guys, but there's a certain 6'9" playmaking forward with perimeter threat that's also an option and likely has a lower chance of being a bust.
Thanks Eric! Like you I’m now less leery about taking Wiseman.
Nobody's (well, Bob Myer's has) really talked about the financial commitment for a relative unknown. If they have confidence in the pick, they'll spend the money - otherwise, it's a trade-down.
Despite the trend for small-ball, I don't think you can lose by getting an active, athletic big man. The Dubs will undoubtedly hire a big man "Steve Nash" to consult with the organization if they pick Wiseman.
Great exercise. I'd still prefer a trade down to draft a versatile wing defender who can shoot (W's greatest need) and tradable picks or another rotation player. But if they draft him 2nd, would I be excited about Wiseman's potential given the comparisons in this exercise? Hell yeah.
Still ended up choosing O'Neal over Wiggins in the final game, and overall this game was super interesting, but didn't really change my view on Wiseman, as my original thoughts were thought he's probably going to be good in a few years (and is probably lower risk than Edwards or Lamelo over the long run), but is very raw right now and would offer less in the near-term than Edwards, or even a Avidja/Vassell/Haliburton. Also, a lot of the players in this game were from earlier days, where big centers were more valuable and less exploited, so I think you have to downward adjust that in modern game. Looking at recently drafted lottery centers, you have Ayton and Bagley who are more traditional types and have underperformed relative to other picks around them, plus picks like Len and WCS who are basically busts. The ones who have done really well all have a notable unicorn/once in a generation skill, such as shooting for KP, passing/switchability for Bam, playmaking for Jokic, overall generational defence and offence for AD, generational post work for Embiid etc. Wiseman doesn't stand out on any skill, just on his overall athleticism (but lateral movement hasn't popped either). TLDR; still not sold on Wiseman as #2 pick for us, would prefer Edwards (if MIN trades down, which seems decently likely), or trade down to #4-8 to grab a wing + additional assets.
It makes me feel somewhat better about Wiseman, but the scouting report about high schoolers blowing by him on defense still makes me nervous.
I think there are too many scenarios that would work for the Warriors for me to settle on just one. Drafting Wiseman would work for me as long as they use their TPE and Midlevel wisely. I could also see them parlaying the #2 pick into a trade bringing a player or two and some lower picks in this draft. And, I can see them going with Lamello with the same caveat as I mentioned with Wiseman. No one is going to come in and be ready to start on the Warriors in the draft. Only desperate teams have to plug in rookies right away. It's the peripheral trading of assets that will make the big difference in the upcoming season. We also have a top pick next season!
On bluemanhoop, Pesta listed 8 trades that made sense, some more than others. I suggest people go and have a look and consider some of these. Some are very clever and convincing.
I'm not going to lie, this has been a fairly interesting exercise. I was right in all of the games, except for the last one where I passed on both missing on Jermaine O'Neal. This has made me a little bit more comfortable with the Wiseman selection, though I've always been relatively comfortable with that selection since it provides us with much-needed rim protection. My main concern is, if we draft Wiseman, we need to make shooting an absolute priority come to Free Agency. Because at this moment, we have far too many people in our lineup who are terrible from distance and the three-pointer is the great equalizer we need since our defense is unlikely to be dominant.
I don't think it's surprising or an accident that one of the two rounds where I decided to pass on both players is the one that had Wiseman in it. And it's cool that the other guy eventually became an all-star, but can we afford to draft someone who needs 4 years to develop?
It's nice to know that 7' players with some skills and high school success rarely fail in the NBA, and that makes sense. I think I'm with you, that I'm more comfortable with the Warriors picking Wiseman after this exercise. In fact, I could see him being a pretty good option to have in the rotation right away, a younger/fresher/rawer JaVale type player. But I still am more excited for an option like Haliburton or Okongwu, especially in the modern NBA with the players the team already has. Largely that's probably because I'm high on Chriss and Looney and small-ball in general as the future of the game.
That said, I think it'll be very interesting to see how the Lakers do the rest of this postseason, because their roster is bringing the highest level of truly "big" basketball play right now: they regularly put three players 6'9" and above on the court at the same time, among AD, Howard, & McGee, with Lebron as "point" and Danny Green and Kuzma as their other big-minutes players.
There are lots of other notable big guys in the league, too: a hypothetical finals matchup with Milwaukee is a concern since Giannis + Lopez is a massive side advantage over our current roster. I'm not worried about Porzingas in Dallas, or Philly in general, or OKC with Steven Adams. Jokic's pass-heavy style in Denver I think demands more disciplined defending than just "banging and bumping." Also in the West we have Gobert to deal with, the Clippers have undersized center Harrell alongside up-and-coming big guy Zubac, and Ayton's progress in Phoenix will be something to watch as well. The big center isn't really who you need to look out for when facing teams like Houston, Portland (sorry, Nurkic), Memphis, or New Orleans. So, survey says, a 7-foot center (or PF) is a good role to fill in your rotation, but not the cornerstone of most contenders. Given that the draft is always a toss-up, a player like Wiseman whose floor is fairly high and ceiling is higher is probably a fine way to use a high draft pick. I think a lot of us are maybe a little too scarred by the futility of the Damian Jones project to recognize how different a lottery-quality big man can be.
Great game. I ended up passing on the heavy guys, so I got that right. But I ended up with Dwight Howard, Kwame Brown, and... James Wiseman.
Having read your write up, I think I'm largely persuaded. A serviceable big man with a lottery ticket for something more; I think I can live with that. It also brings in a talent on a rookie contract (so it's cheaper) and it keeps the Ws from being loaded up with too many guys who expect to star and might not being willing to do the dirty work.
If Simmons or Giannis become available, I suppose you don't pass, but I worried about the Hamptons version of the Ws. Those guys made it work, but it seemed like the deferring got a little old. Better to have more guys who contribute and do the dirty work than to have an elite few.
great exercise thx eric. assuming MN takes edwards #1 i'm thinking wiseman or onkongwu as best big possibilities and haliburton or hayes as backcourt player options
Thanks for putting this all together. Great work.