Apricot's Rule of Trade Masochism and The Endless Giannis Trade Saga

the trade deadline is Feb 5, noon Pacific

How can I deal with the anxiety of waiting for the Giannis trade to be settled?

I know you might be feeling some anxiety about a potential trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo. I say, embrace this feeling, whether it is dread of the change the trade could bring, of the massive risk, of the pain of NOT completing the trade. This pain is how we know we are alive and sports fans.

My deep thought: Sports without heartbreak is mere bookkeeping.

Because it wasn’t so long ago (say… 2013) that every single Warriors free agency hunt ended in abject failure leaving Dub Nation with the feeling that we were rather stupid to even get our hopes up. It wasn’t so long ago that the team just stunk, was run by terrible management, no one cared, and the only good thing was the die-hard fan base.

At least we’re in position to be anxious about huge possibilities! Also, try eating a whole tub of ice cream.

What is Apricot’s Rule of Trade Masochism?

Apricot’s Rule of Trade Masochism is that for a homer (like me and probably you) to properly judge trade value, you have to come up with a trade that is honestly fair but painful, right on the edge of wanting to do it and not. Then throw in one or two 1st round picks.

It’s a way to try to get a realistic sense of trade value that factors in the fact that fandoms always overrate their own players and assets.

Yes, there are occasional black swan catastrophes like the Luka trade, but that kind of all-time stupidity is not something to count on.

Case Study 1: D’Angelo Russell for Andrew Wiggins

I’ll admit that when this trade was being discussed, in the DNHQ Slack I said that I would only consider DLo for Wiggins only if three 1st rounders were included and maybe not even then. In my defense, most people thought Wiggins was an unmotivated and negative presence, the worst contract in the league with very bad analytics.

The actual trade ended up being DLo for Wiggins + ONE FIRST ROUNDER. Dub Nation was stunned with disappointment. And I was off by 2 1st rounders. In my defense again, GSW did actually ask for 3 first rounders in the negotiation.

Case Study 2: Andrew Wiggins et al for Jimmy Butler

This is a little tricky since for some people (like me), this was a clear Hell Yes if Jimmy was okay with it. But my observation was that for the majority of Dub Nation, they were against trading Wiggins for Butler at all. There was quite an outpouring of concern, pain and mourning in the days afterwards. (This is natural since Wiggins was beloved.)

So, the trade with no picks was past the Masochism line for most of Dub Nation. The final trade ended up being Butler for Wiggins et al PLUS ONE FIRST ROUNDER. I am going to count this as a tricky case, but a win for the ARTM.

How does ARTM apply to the Giannis trade?

The Giannis trade scenario is the first one where every legal trade I can think of seems worth it. (I know the majority of Dub Nation doesn’t feel this way.) For the first time, I cannot find the line of Masochism.

The logical conclusion, if you believe in the ironclad ARTM and psychohistory, is that since a painful trade is not legally possible, that no trade is possible. That is, MIL would rather not trade than do a GSW trade because there just isn’t enough value in legally allowed trades.

MIL should want a young promising star plus all the picks and contract eating. And they probably can get that over the summer, and GSW can’t do that.

Don’t GSW reportedly have the best offer?

GSW has the “best” offer at the deadline, in terms of raw number of picks (4 firsts plus 1 swap) and whichever young players MIL wants. But it is not enough to beat all other offers, since MIL could always choose to not trade Giannis.

For comparison, the KD to the Suns trade had PHX giving up “Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, 4 first-round draft picks and a 2028 first-round pick swap”. GSW can’t match that.

But in reality, who CAN match that trade? I haven’t heard of any team that can match that. But MIL may hold out for a can’t-refuse offer.

So does that mean GSW is out of the Giannis hunt or not?

GSW are very much still in it, reportedly.

MIL is in this funny position of deciding between the competing deadline offers and waiting until the summer, when competitors NYK and MIA will have two more picks to trade and people will know what actual 2026 pick they have after the lottery.

The only things that I can see might tip things to GSW are:

• MIL might feel rushed to trade before Giannis has to decide on an extension

  • Once Giannis has that choice, he’ll have way more leverage.

  • Giannis return this year will also hurt MIL’s lottery position.

  • The trading team would miss out on 1 of 2 postseasons with Giannis.

  • Weird things happen. A big injury to Giannis or Steph would completely change the GSW offer.

• Giannis might veto better options in favor of playing with Steph

• GSW creatively adds more to their offer.

  • They could manage some side trades in an attempt to bring more draft capital to MIL.

  • They could specifically try to include POR to return some of MIL’s picks so MIL can properly tank.

  • They could try harder to absorb more bad MIL contracts.

So that’s what’s happening now. Everyone brings MIL their best offer and we wait, probably right up to Feb 5, noon Pacific, the trade deadline.

Why would we trade everything for a two-year rental of Giannis at best?

I understand the widespread skepticism but for me:

1a. At best it’s much more than a two year rental, it’s the rest of his career. Get him in the fold, let Steph hug him a lot and show him The Warriors Way.

1b. And if not that, then it could be a Giannis trade for more assets;

• Giannis’s trade value would surely go down, but as long as he doesn’t leave GSW outright in free agency (I agree that is a worry), GSW can get something back.

1c. And if not that, it’s a bunch of cap space back.

2. The “trade everything” specifics make a difference. We don’t simply end up with a team of 12 G-Leaguers and all elderly players. I’ll do a breakdown next question.

3. The Giannis plan to me is much better than the current plan, which is to

• take one more shot at a Steph-Jimmy-Draymond run,

• hoping Jimmy can contribute in the last couple of months, and

• then go big free agent hunting in Summer 2027.

  • Key free agents are Giannis and Jokic and then a lot of guys you probably can’t build a team around. Jokic seems unlikely to leave a strong DEN team and Giannis... well what better way to recruit than to have him and also be able to re-sign him for a lot more than other teams? Feels more likely that we try to overpay some minor star to join a depleted team (think Donovan Mitchell level).

• The Giannis injury definitely adds to the risk that it all goes wrong. That’a a lot of calf strains. I’m just not too sold on the current plan after 2026-27, so I don’t feel like we’re breaking up a no-risk plan to return to contention or anything... we’re probably looking at 5 years of badness anyway and the chance of drafting a player to build around is not that high. This gives us a chance at a way out.

4. Of course a sharp trade could make a third better way, but I don’t see one coming.

Wouldn’t the team be gutted of youth with a Giannis trade?

It depends on the trade! Here is one reported trade offer:

fotd report of Evan Sidery:

Potential framework suggested by Evan Sidery

Bucks: Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard, 2026 1st, 2028 1st, 2030 1st, 2031 swap, 2032 1st

Warriors: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma, Thanasis Antetokounmpo

This leaves the following roster:

• Steph Curry

• Giannis Antetokounmpo

• Thanasis Antetokounmpo

• Kyle Kuzma

• Quinten Post*

• Moses Moody*

• Gary Payton II

• Buddy Hield

• Draymond Green

• Gui Santos*

• Trayce Jackson-Davis*

• Pat Spencer*

• Al Horford

• De’Anthony Melton

• Malevy Leons*

• LJ Cryer*

• Seth Curry

with the * players in the realm of “young talent”.

The young players we lose are

• Kuminga - DNP & does not seem tradable for good young player

• Richard - we just drafted him at the bottom of the 2nd round where picks are relatively easy to buy, and we’ve had a great run of doing so

• Podziemski

So that leaves a youth corps of Quinten, Moses, Gui, Trayce, Pat and long shots Cryer and Leons. In some ways these players may have been held back from too much competition with too many other young players.

So anyway, are they future stars? Maybe not, but this doesn’t look to me like an empty cupboard.

What do you think will happen?

How would I know? I’m not in the room with primary sources.

But what do you THINK will happen?

My guess is that MIL will probably wait until summer, but I suspect they won’t get as good a deal as they will from GSW right now simply because they will never get a more willing and desperate trade partner who is also almost guaranteed to get a lot worse when Steph retires in the next 5 years. Stuff happens and if Giannis gets another injury (or much worse, Steph gets a major injury), MIL would lose a lot of their leverage.

But I would guess that if Giannis doesn’t get traded to someone else before the trade deadline, then GSW stands pat in hopes of taking another shot at Giannis in the summer. Unless there’s a really good trade for Kuminga, which there does not appear to be.

I also would agree with that strategy. Getting Giannis would be so franchise changing that it’s the #1 priority. Every other trade is in the category of increasing Steph’s chances at a championship from 0.5% to 1.0%.

There is still a decent chance that MIL pulls the trigger before the deadline, as discussed above. If so, they will have their choice of

• pick party (GSW),

• win now players (NYK, MIN),

• and a house blend of the two (MIA).

There’s also the unknowable influence of Giannis’s direct requests of MIL and his backchannel messages to teams about not re-signing.

That means a decent chance MIL chooses GSW, especially if GSW can get MIL some of its picks back.

Does the reputation of Joe Lacob Light Years hinge on getting Giannis or not?

To me, no, but I don’t mind if we disagree about this completely made-up concept. I don’t personally spend a lot of time worrying about questions with badly defined terms and badly defined answers.

But I will say… the fact that GSW are so close to getting this done (and yet so far) means this trade season has been a big win for Team Patience. Being the frontrunner for Giannis is better than overpaying for Markkanen or (thank Odin) Paul George or Alex Caruso.

I personally did not think a Top 5 player, especially Giannis, would ever become available and that GSW would have the leading trade package to get him.

I also haven’t heard of a single plausible trade for which we should have shipped out the young guys. Lauri Markannen? Paul George? Good Hail Marys to try but low probabilities of success.

DNHQers suggested Alex Caruso was in reach. Shams says:

“Lacob has remained a staunch Kuminga supporter and vocal believer in his long-term future,” Charania wrote. “He voiced an unwillingness to include Kuminga in a proposed trade from Chicago for Alex Caruso a couple of seasons back, sources said, and was still glowing about Kuminga’s performance in May after he rose from out of Steve Kerr’s first-round rotation...”

Of course, I would have personally traded JK straight up for Caruso, but we’ll never know the exact trade offered.

Alex Caruso ended up traded straight up for Josh Giddey who by WS, BPM and VORP is around the #5 - #8 best player in the 2021 draft; JK by the same measures is quite far below him at around #20 or so. So for sure there would have been more players or picks in the proposed trade and at that point, many other people might have “unwillingness” to include JK in a proposed trade.

The trade poll

Too many to poll, so here is the basic one we analyzed above. This is a good time to take the DNHQ temperature on this trade.

Bucks get: Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard, 2026 1st, 2028 1st, 2030 1st, 2031 swap, 2032 1st

Warriors get: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma, Thanasis Antetokounmpo

For the record, I am a Hell Yes.