Substack manages subscriptions weird. I just changed my yearly to monthly before it renews for the full year next month, but then it just terminated my annual a month early and billed me immediately for the next month. I would have expected it to finish my current sub then roll over into monthly once the annual expires.
[[ Kevon Looney is out tonight for the Warriors at Clippers. Illness. He wasn't at shootaround. Steph Curry and Lindy Waters III are still listed as questionable. Both went through shootaround this morning in Los Angeles. ]]
I was going to comment on how Kerr is still missing the target by making JK the defacto backup small forward rather than figure out how to employ him more from the power forward slot, but then I decided to watch a 2-hour podcast on heart disease.
Curious, because it’s much better for my BP to be thinking/reading about the Warriors and the Sea Dubs than it is to read/think about neo-Nazis marching in Columbus Ohio.
I just did a deep dive on 1st Qtr substitution patterns. As he has always been, GP2 plays a small 4. In the Star Trek Universe (Mirror, Mirror), GP2's opposite is Draymond. Dray is a PG on offense, mostly PF on defense. GP2 is a PF on offense & a PG on defense.
The 1st substitution is almost always GP2 for Trace. GP2 plays the 4, and Dray slides to the 5 for a few minutes, before he is typically subbed out for Looney. So your 4/5 has been mostly Dray/Trace/GP2/Loon with Slow Mo/JK rounding extra minutes at the 4, mostly coming in for GP2 with less than 3 minutes left in the quarter.
Basically, JK is tied for 3rd on the depth chart with Slow Mo at PF behind Dray and GP2. Such as it has been, such shall it always be.
JK has had some minutes at the 4. 1 min each in games 5 & 6.
4:24 in game 7
6:21 in game 9
2:39 in game 10
2:02 in game 11
JK has played 28% of his minutes at PF in the 1st Qtr.
JK has started 3 games at SF and subbed directly in at SF in 5 of the 9 other games.
The point is, Kerr is still trying to make him a small forward in this offense. In the long run, that's okay as he develops a better shot. But in the meantime, he's getting 50 cents on the dollar from JK . Not to mention, every extra minute JK plays at SF, is a minute less for Moody. And the domino starts with GP2 being, according to Kerr's rotations, our backup PF.
I'm loathe to second-guess the Cavs at the moment, as the last time I saw them play they were clinging to a 38-81 advantage on us before I ran shrieking from the room and swore off all human attachments forever.
From the same article, Three Takeaways for the Warriors:
"When the Warriors went to five straight Finals, they were most dominant in the third quarter. And that’s the case again this year, with the Warriors having outscored their opponents by 25.3 points per 100 possessions in the third quarter, the best mark for any team in any period. They had a 16-0, third-quarter run against Dallas on Tuesday, and they took control of their game against Memphis with a big third quarter on Friday.
That dominance has been mostly about offense, where the Warriors have scored an incredible 138 points per 100 possessions in the third. The have four of the 17 players with an effective field goal percentage of 70% or better on at least 20 third-quarter field goal attempts, with Draymond Green (86.4%) having shot 10-for-15 from 3-point range in the third.
Playing 12 guys continues to work, but maybe some cracks are showing. For the season, the Warriors have outscored their opponents by 6.2 points per 100 possessions in 194 minutes with neither Green nor Stephen Curry on the floor, but both of them had huge on-off differentials over their two games last week.
One of the Warriors’ two losses and their worst offensive game of the season was against the Clippers (when they had a rest advantage) in Week 1. They’ll have a rest advantage again in L.A. on Monday."
I remember what KD said when I asked about why the Warriors did so well in third quarters. He said that they didn’t play any better, they just were wearing their opponents out by then.
run more! of course we cant turn it over - lue knows a lof our patterns so they interupted them for either a turnover or just mucking up the offense and there was a lot of stagnant possessions
also TJD was really just not putting in the effort until the last couple games - much more hustle and being active, if he can do that vs zubac maybe we dont notice it as much w/o Loon
i think its more important to stop Powell and DJJ since they hit 3's
I'm hopeful that we've got some counters figured out... like cutting backdoor on the top locks and such. But we really gotta work on getting the ball TO Buddy in transition instead of throwing the ball away.
He’s famous, he’s famous. He’s a GSOM LEGEND. Am I the only one who didn’t know this?
“Scottie Pippen Jr. was on Curry the moment he touched the ball. One certainly can’t blame Pippen for staying attached to Curry at all times (as GSOM LEGEND and current DubNation HQ mainstay Eric Apricot likes to say, “No one ever got fired for sticking to Steph Curry.”) But a big reason why Steve Kerr hasn’t been fired yet himself — among four other big reasons — is because he has weaponized Curry’s ability to make defenders stick to him at all costs. As Thinking Basketball’s Ben Taylor once said of Curry, the Warriors superstar is a “nasty little screener.””
Other than Mark Jackson and Keith Smart, you mean.
There are plenty of coaches that would have just stuffed him into a P&R game and spammed it to death. Whether or not that is maximizing Steph's value, well, I don't know. Certainly Jackson's offense didn't look all that spiffy (but not as good personnel, either).
Curry, Draymond, Wiggins lead the Warriors averaging 29, 28 and 27 minutes per game. The Grizzlies are the only other team over .500 with their top three players under 30 MPG.
I would be mildly concerned if I was a Celtics fan. The East is crap, and yet they haven't stormed through it as effectively as Cleveland, all while pilling a lot of minutes on their best players. They managed to lose to Atlanta who then lost to Portland - not a good look.
the Celtics have had the 2nd easiest schedule while the Cavs have had the 4th easiest schedule so far. So I guess it makes sense that the Celtics not steamrolling the competition in the weak east is kind of a concern for Boston.
>>>There won’t be a tribute video for Caleb Martin or Kyle Lowry tonight, for those asking. The Heat reserves those for players who won an NBA championship or made an All-Star Game while with the team.
Somebody will catch him... Anthony Edwards had made 850 and is on track for almost 400 this year. Even if he falls off and only ends the year at 300 made, he's still at 1,100 at age 23. He'd have to make ~250/year for another 15 years, but that's doable, imo... he has to stay healthy, but 250 is not a high number for a high volume 3pt shooter that plays 70-75 games/year... and that's Anthony Edwards, not a true shooter. There will be more coming along...
I think the nice thing is that by the time Steph retires, the record is going to be so far out there that longevity isn't going to be the determining factor.
Whoever does it is either going to have to shoot a lot more of them at a decent make rate, or shoot as many as Steph does now at an absolutely elite rate to do it.
That's someone I'd be OK with passing the torch to (not that I'll see it, I'll be long in the ground before that record falls).
I'll be happy to see the torch passed unless it's a Harden/Tatum type that just shoots sooooo many, but only hits at 37% or something that's "a good shot" but not remotely elite. Remember when Haren finally beat Steph by shooting >1,000 3PA. Steph shot 43% that year, but Haren beat him with volume shooting at 37% lol...
Much tougher to do over a career than a single season.
And, honestly, I'd be fine if some 38% shooter just out-careers Steph by taking a zillion more.
They'd just be taking advantage of norms when they played, as Steph did when compared to Bird, say (look how many people Steph has passed on the career scoring list, because he shoots a metric ton of 3s).
If some less than league average shooter got the record, I would not be OK, but I doubt that could even happen.
Ant is 23, and has grown in the league with modern medicine and training... and has played 302/328 (92%) of his team's games in his first 4 years... his "availability" is elite, so far.
I am 100% confident nobody playing now or on the horizon will catch him. If you really start looking at the field and at how things have headed, it’s hard to ignore.
I disagree. The problem is 3PAr continues to rise and Steph had a late and slow start to his career. He was 24 when he started this incredible 12-year stretch averaging 280 3PMs per year. Someone will come in at 19 or 20 and Harden their way to 275-300 per year for a long career. It wouldn't be impossible for it to be Luka or Edwards. Luka had 284 last year and 917 prior to that. To be on pace, Luka will only need to average 210 per year through his age 36 season.
What will not be matched in the near future is Steph's efficiency on his volume.
So it's fun to say stuff like "the probability is definitely" but since we're both talking out of our asses, do you have anything other than gut feeling to back that up? The numbers I am looking at say the opposite. As in, worse shooters going for moderately higher individual volumes that still don't match Steph's volumes he has already achieved over many years aren't going to come remotely close to out shooting him over the long haul.
Harden's still playing today. Plus, salaries will be like $300M/yr at that point. Luka may be fat, but I'd guess he'd still be playing his way into shape.
And has been averaging 2.6 3PM per game while playing 50 games a season since 2020.
In the same span Steph has averaged 4.8 3PM while playing nearly the same amount of minutes.
Steph's longevity and consistency is going to be the deciding factor here. The young generation will be chucking up more threes, but will they be able to do it for long enough?
make it sound like its gonna take him from now until he's 36 to actually get into shape 🤣🤣
in the past i made fun of my co-worker who was a few years older and had a gut, then i got older and had the same issue lol.
i think Luka gonna be a big guy like Harden seeing how uninterested the both of them are in being "fit". if he's not really fit most of the time when he's in his 20's its only gonna get worse
Ruth's record lasted until what, the 70's and Hammerin' Hank? And Aaron had to play 20+ years to do it IIRC. And then Bonds came along and beat it with a giant asterisk. I absolutely would not rule out something like that, yeah.
Yup! It took an outlier in performance consistency and the best batter ever on juice to surpass Ruth. One of the benefits of being the first to do something is that you have at least a few years where nobody knows what the heck to do to stop you, so you can rack up some crazy stats.
In 2020, I thought if Steph had another 2-3 good seasons, the record would be very near unbreakable due to the combination of volume and longevity.
Steph's current career average is 3.9 3PM per game. So a player will need to average at least 3.9PM over a fairly long career (currently ~33k minutes, 116th all-time).
Guys have hot starts to the season, there are lots of seasons where somebody is insanely hot and is on pace to end with a high number. It's just really really really hard to sustain and if you start missing a lot (which anyone will do) it's really hard to keep shooting them.
You wrote about Edwards "...if he falls off and only ends the year at 300 made." There are three guys in history who have made 300 plus threes in a season: Steph, five times. Harden, once (he also had a 299 season). Klay, once (301).
You wrote: "He'd have to make ~250/year for another 15 years, but that's doable, imo". There are 34 seasons in NBA history where someone has made 250 or more threes. 34! From everyone in history. Subtract Steph's 10, and everyone else has 24 total. And you think Ant can himself casually hit 250 a year for 15 years? You wrote "250 is not a high number for a high volume 3pt shooter that plays 70-75 games/yea". Who exactly are you talking about here, other than Steph? Because there are absolutely zero other players that you can describe this way. (New Splash teammate Buddy Hield is actually closest here, he has five).
The most threes Ant has made in a year to date is 215.
I hear ya... but there's a strong and continuing tendency for teams and players attempting more and more 3s. Ant's last 3 years have been 215, 213, and 190. 250 is only a relatively modest increase, tbh. Tatum is at 1,350, only 26, and he's almost guaranteed to attempt way more 3s than ever. 15 of the 100 highest 3PA seasons occurred last year, and 11 the year before. The strong trend is guys taking more 3s... so I think 250 is soon going to be as common as 200 is today.
That's fine, I look forward to your amazement in the future as you realize just how far Steph is still ahead of the league ;)
Like, maybe we should wait until Ant hits 250 *ONCE*. Better yet, let's see him string together four or five straight such seasons, to make an actual dent.
Yeah, but sort it by year and you get pre-2016: 5. Post 2016: 17 (2+ per year). It's becoming more and more common. Just last year, there were 4, including two newcomers.
This is the only time I’ve ever agreed with Harden.
He was asked if anyone would be able to catch up to Steph. His reply:
“I mean, I'm one of the most confident guys that we have in this league,” Harden said during his postgame press conference, mulling his answer. “But no. I probably won't catch Steph. And I don't think anybody will honestly. Just because… Steph started and he just… I don't know man…”
Game thread up.
Is this going to be the game thread?
< he says, in quiet desperation >
Substack manages subscriptions weird. I just changed my yearly to monthly before it renews for the full year next month, but then it just terminated my annual a month early and billed me immediately for the next month. I would have expected it to finish my current sub then roll over into monthly once the annual expires.
Sorry that Substack is so peculiar. I hope it works out in the end.
Latest Brian Windhorst / Hoop Collective podcast (one of the best national hoops podcasts in the absence of Zach Lowe) has a good interview with Podz.
... Would be intresting to do a podcast tourney and see what we all like the most.
ESPN must have given Lowe a golden parachute package to go along with a media blackout period.
[[ Kevon Looney is out tonight for the Warriors at Clippers. Illness. He wasn't at shootaround. Steph Curry and Lindy Waters III are still listed as questionable. Both went through shootaround this morning in Los Angeles. ]]
https://bsky.app/profile/anthonyvslater.bsky.social/post/3lbauo3e2ck2o
Our matchup disadvantage vs Zubac just got a lot worse…
Run dat summabitch off da floor!
I guess Post is going to get some minutes.
OKC without Hartenstein and Chet was able to handle the Clippers despite getting killed on threes and rebounds.
Kevon Looney ill, Lindy Waters III
I think he's playing.
https://www.reddit.com/r/warriors/comments/1guhv8r/steph_climbing_the_wall_at_intuit_dome/
(If you click the X link you will see Steph climb the Intuit wall.)
Looney out tonight. Steph and LW3 still questionable.
Loon is out due to illness, for anyone who is wondering.
I was going to comment on how Kerr is still missing the target by making JK the defacto backup small forward rather than figure out how to employ him more from the power forward slot, but then I decided to watch a 2-hour podcast on heart disease.
You're welcome.
Thank you.
Did you learn anything about heart disease worth sharing?
Yeah, stop thinking about basketball! LOL
Curious, because it’s much better for my BP to be thinking/reading about the Warriors and the Sea Dubs than it is to read/think about neo-Nazis marching in Columbus Ohio.
Yeah. Why do you think I keep coming back? lol ;-)
I thought he’s playing more 4 than 3. 🤷♂️
I just did a deep dive on 1st Qtr substitution patterns. As he has always been, GP2 plays a small 4. In the Star Trek Universe (Mirror, Mirror), GP2's opposite is Draymond. Dray is a PG on offense, mostly PF on defense. GP2 is a PF on offense & a PG on defense.
The 1st substitution is almost always GP2 for Trace. GP2 plays the 4, and Dray slides to the 5 for a few minutes, before he is typically subbed out for Looney. So your 4/5 has been mostly Dray/Trace/GP2/Loon with Slow Mo/JK rounding extra minutes at the 4, mostly coming in for GP2 with less than 3 minutes left in the quarter.
Basically, JK is tied for 3rd on the depth chart with Slow Mo at PF behind Dray and GP2. Such as it has been, such shall it always be.
JK has had some minutes at the 4. 1 min each in games 5 & 6.
4:24 in game 7
6:21 in game 9
2:39 in game 10
2:02 in game 11
JK has played 28% of his minutes at PF in the 1st Qtr.
JK has started 3 games at SF and subbed directly in at SF in 5 of the 9 other games.
The point is, Kerr is still trying to make him a small forward in this offense. In the long run, that's okay as he develops a better shot. But in the meantime, he's getting 50 cents on the dollar from JK . Not to mention, every extra minute JK plays at SF, is a minute less for Moody. And the domino starts with GP2 being, according to Kerr's rotations, our backup PF.
As per https://www.nba.com/news/power-rankings-2024-25-week-5, "The West is 37-15 (.712) against the East in interconference games after going 4-1 last week." Disgusting.
(Oh yeah, Warriors are #2 in this ranking).
-The article makes a good point about the Cavs record: they've won most of their games against teams with bad defense.
-OKC is a bad rebounding team, especially without Chet and Hartenstein. However, they've won most of their games by winning the turnover battle.
-Celtics paint defense is below average, but they make up for their deficiency by hitting their threes.
I'm loathe to second-guess the Cavs at the moment, as the last time I saw them play they were clinging to a 38-81 advantage on us before I ran shrieking from the room and swore off all human attachments forever.
I know the feeling. How quickly we forget.
So, in related news, the Celtics aren't all that great on defense either...
They're allergic to the paint this season: https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/misc?dir=A&sort=PTS_PAINT
28th in points in paint and 27th in opponent points in paint. Meanwhile, the Cavs are #4 in points in paint and #7 in opponent points in paint.
From the same article, Three Takeaways for the Warriors:
"When the Warriors went to five straight Finals, they were most dominant in the third quarter. And that’s the case again this year, with the Warriors having outscored their opponents by 25.3 points per 100 possessions in the third quarter, the best mark for any team in any period. They had a 16-0, third-quarter run against Dallas on Tuesday, and they took control of their game against Memphis with a big third quarter on Friday.
That dominance has been mostly about offense, where the Warriors have scored an incredible 138 points per 100 possessions in the third. The have four of the 17 players with an effective field goal percentage of 70% or better on at least 20 third-quarter field goal attempts, with Draymond Green (86.4%) having shot 10-for-15 from 3-point range in the third.
Playing 12 guys continues to work, but maybe some cracks are showing. For the season, the Warriors have outscored their opponents by 6.2 points per 100 possessions in 194 minutes with neither Green nor Stephen Curry on the floor, but both of them had huge on-off differentials over their two games last week.
One of the Warriors’ two losses and their worst offensive game of the season was against the Clippers (when they had a rest advantage) in Week 1. They’ll have a rest advantage again in L.A. on Monday."
I remember what KD said when I asked about why the Warriors did so well in third quarters. He said that they didn’t play any better, they just were wearing their opponents out by then.
It was among the most glorious thing to watch in sports. Once the avalanche started no lead was safe.
LW3 getting up shots: https://bsky.app/profile/daltonjohnson.bsky.social/post/3lbao6drn4k2u
how are we going to stop zubac tonight without Loon!
Go small and run him right off the floor. Also keep running high PNR with Steph or Buddy with whoever is at the 5 to make Zubac contest up high
Should they try Gui?
run more! of course we cant turn it over - lue knows a lof our patterns so they interupted them for either a turnover or just mucking up the offense and there was a lot of stagnant possessions
also TJD was really just not putting in the effort until the last couple games - much more hustle and being active, if he can do that vs zubac maybe we dont notice it as much w/o Loon
i think its more important to stop Powell and DJJ since they hit 3's
Moody getting 11 minutes tonight!
Clippers stats:
Offense:
22 in points scored (109.7)
13 in points in paint (49.6)
14 in fastbreak points (16.3)
18 in offensive efficiency
13 in shooting % (46.2%)
11 in three point % (37.0%)
21 in two point % (52.3%)
9 in off. rebound % !!! (27.5%)
6 in def. rebound % !!!!!!!!!! (77.6%)
3 in total rebound % !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (52.2%)
15 in opponent blocks (5.1)
28 in opponent steals (10.1)
20 in assists (25.0)
27 in turnovers (16.6)
Defense:
4 in points allowed!!!!!!!!!!!!! (109.9)
13 in opponent points in paint (46.7)
25 in opponent fastbreak points (17.2)
8 in defensive efficiency!!!!!!
13 in opponent shooting % (46.4%)
14 in opponent three point % (35.6%)
16 in opponent two point % (54.8%)
22 in blocks (4.6)
14 in steals (8.2)
6 in opponent assists!!!!!!!!! (24.1)
12 in opponent turnovers (14.6)
Low assists against them…low scoring games
Yea, so, they can def muck up everything for us all game. Thats why we lost to em the last time. Can’t let em do that
Houston's #1 in opponent assists.
But they get out and run, vs the hard-on ball the clips run
I'm hopeful that we've got some counters figured out... like cutting backdoor on the top locks and such. But we really gotta work on getting the ball TO Buddy in transition instead of throwing the ball away.
need some of our better shooters to go midrange if we cant get by Zubac, might ease up the rim protection too
No kidding. Great point. Buddy is moving so well off ball…have to find him.
Definitely a lot more cohesion going on w the Dubz, seemingly, now that they’ve played together longer vs the last time against the clips
He’s famous, he’s famous. He’s a GSOM LEGEND. Am I the only one who didn’t know this?
“Scottie Pippen Jr. was on Curry the moment he touched the ball. One certainly can’t blame Pippen for staying attached to Curry at all times (as GSOM LEGEND and current DubNation HQ mainstay Eric Apricot likes to say, “No one ever got fired for sticking to Steph Curry.”) But a big reason why Steve Kerr hasn’t been fired yet himself — among four other big reasons — is because he has weaponized Curry’s ability to make defenders stick to him at all costs. As Thinking Basketball’s Ben Taylor once said of Curry, the Warriors superstar is a “nasty little screener.””
BK, GSOM
"But a big reason why Steve Kerr hasn’t been fired yet himself"
This is such a passive aggressive way to word this. Lol.
I'm pretty sure that is referring to the 4 extra rings on his fingers earned while coaching the Dubs.
Any coach in NBA history that had a player like Steph utilized their gravity and it made their offenses flow x100 better and calling plays easier
It’s not anything new
Other than Mark Jackson and Keith Smart, you mean.
There are plenty of coaches that would have just stuffed him into a P&R game and spammed it to death. Whether or not that is maximizing Steph's value, well, I don't know. Certainly Jackson's offense didn't look all that spiffy (but not as good personnel, either).
They definitely had it easier than Ben w their poor offensive scheming…but guaranteed it would have been much worse without Steph
Dang auto correct: easier with Steph
How did they decide what teams play against each other in the NBA Cup?
They select the groups by random chance.
I propose next year it's the warriors versus middling eastern conference teams.
I want to experience what it was like being a cavs fan when LeBron was on the team.
Curry, Draymond, Wiggins lead the Warriors averaging 29, 28 and 27 minutes per game. The Grizzlies are the only other team over .500 with their top three players under 30 MPG.
https://old.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1guarzx/curry_draymond_wiggins_lead_the_warriors/
Golden State: Curry (29), D. Green (28), Wiggins (27)
Memphis: JJJ (29), Aldama (28), Morant (28)
Cleveland: Mitchell (31), Mobley (31), Allen (30)
OKC: SGA (34), Jalen Williams (32), Dort (29)
Houston: VanVleet (35), Jalen Green (32), Brooks (32)
LAL: LeBron (35), Davis (35), Reaves (35)
Orlando: Banchero (36), Wagner (30), Suggs (30)
Boston: Brown (37), Tatum (36), White (34)
Minnesota: Edwards (37), Randle (34), Gobert (33)
Sacramento: K. Murray (38), Fox (37), DeRozan (37)
Denver: Jokic (38), J. Murray (36), MPJ (36)
NYK: Bridges (39), Hart (38), Anunoby (37)
Phoenix: KD (39), Booker (37), Beal (35)
I hope we can continue to keep our three guys’ minutes below 30.
I would be mildly concerned if I was a Celtics fan. The East is crap, and yet they haven't stormed through it as effectively as Cleveland, all while pilling a lot of minutes on their best players. They managed to lose to Atlanta who then lost to Portland - not a good look.
According to this: https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS
the Celtics have had the 2nd easiest schedule while the Cavs have had the 4th easiest schedule so far. So I guess it makes sense that the Celtics not steamrolling the competition in the weak east is kind of a concern for Boston.
>>>The Celtics say Kristaps Porzingis will practice with the Maine Celtics this afternoon to kick off the next phase of his recovery process.
https://x.com/timbontemps/status/1858562604161265925
>>>There won’t be a tribute video for Caleb Martin or Kyle Lowry tonight, for those asking. The Heat reserves those for players who won an NBA championship or made an All-Star Game while with the team.
https://x.com/Anthony_Chiang/status/1858558817291956417
I like that they have a clear rule for deciding these things.
James Harden considers himself number one in 3 point shooting because Steph is in a class all by himself.
I'll allow it.
Somebody will catch him... Anthony Edwards had made 850 and is on track for almost 400 this year. Even if he falls off and only ends the year at 300 made, he's still at 1,100 at age 23. He'd have to make ~250/year for another 15 years, but that's doable, imo... he has to stay healthy, but 250 is not a high number for a high volume 3pt shooter that plays 70-75 games/year... and that's Anthony Edwards, not a true shooter. There will be more coming along...
I think the nice thing is that by the time Steph retires, the record is going to be so far out there that longevity isn't going to be the determining factor.
Whoever does it is either going to have to shoot a lot more of them at a decent make rate, or shoot as many as Steph does now at an absolutely elite rate to do it.
That's someone I'd be OK with passing the torch to (not that I'll see it, I'll be long in the ground before that record falls).
I'll be happy to see the torch passed unless it's a Harden/Tatum type that just shoots sooooo many, but only hits at 37% or something that's "a good shot" but not remotely elite. Remember when Haren finally beat Steph by shooting >1,000 3PA. Steph shot 43% that year, but Haren beat him with volume shooting at 37% lol...
The big difference is I din't lije the Harden/Tatum type. Two of my least favs in the entire league.
Much tougher to do over a career than a single season.
And, honestly, I'd be fine if some 38% shooter just out-careers Steph by taking a zillion more.
They'd just be taking advantage of norms when they played, as Steph did when compared to Bird, say (look how many people Steph has passed on the career scoring list, because he shoots a metric ton of 3s).
If some less than league average shooter got the record, I would not be OK, but I doubt that could even happen.
> for another 15 years
You say that like playing near-peak basketball for 20 seasons is the norm haha
Ant is 23, and has grown in the league with modern medicine and training... and has played 302/328 (92%) of his team's games in his first 4 years... his "availability" is elite, so far.
I am 100% confident nobody playing now or on the horizon will catch him. If you really start looking at the field and at how things have headed, it’s hard to ignore.
I disagree. The problem is 3PAr continues to rise and Steph had a late and slow start to his career. He was 24 when he started this incredible 12-year stretch averaging 280 3PMs per year. Someone will come in at 19 or 20 and Harden their way to 275-300 per year for a long career. It wouldn't be impossible for it to be Luka or Edwards. Luka had 284 last year and 917 prior to that. To be on pace, Luka will only need to average 210 per year through his age 36 season.
What will not be matched in the near future is Steph's efficiency on his volume.
Sure, that's fine. All Steph has to do is average 300 threes for the next four-five years of his career to put it even further out of reach.
The funny thing is, he has more chance/track record of doing that than anyone else...
I wouldn't say no. But, the probability is definitely more with Luka. Or Ant. Or Tatum. Or the field, than Steph unfortunately.
So it's fun to say stuff like "the probability is definitely" but since we're both talking out of our asses, do you have anything other than gut feeling to back that up? The numbers I am looking at say the opposite. As in, worse shooters going for moderately higher individual volumes that still don't match Steph's volumes he has already achieved over many years aren't going to come remotely close to out shooting him over the long haul.
> Luka will only need to average 210 per year through his age 36 season.
Lol at Luka playing till age 36... he's gonna be retired, fat, and happy by then.... happily complaining about all the foul calls he never got.
Harden's still playing today. Plus, salaries will be like $300M/yr at that point. Luka may be fat, but I'd guess he'd still be playing his way into shape.
> Harden's still playing today
And has been averaging 2.6 3PM per game while playing 50 games a season since 2020.
In the same span Steph has averaged 4.8 3PM while playing nearly the same amount of minutes.
Steph's longevity and consistency is going to be the deciding factor here. The young generation will be chucking up more threes, but will they be able to do it for long enough?
make it sound like its gonna take him from now until he's 36 to actually get into shape 🤣🤣
in the past i made fun of my co-worker who was a few years older and had a gut, then i got older and had the same issue lol.
i think Luka gonna be a big guy like Harden seeing how uninterested the both of them are in being "fit". if he's not really fit most of the time when he's in his 20's its only gonna get worse
For all the reasons you stated, I think Steph's record will be like Babe Ruth's; sure someone will catch him, but that player will be special
Ruth's record lasted until what, the 70's and Hammerin' Hank? And Aaron had to play 20+ years to do it IIRC. And then Bonds came along and beat it with a giant asterisk. I absolutely would not rule out something like that, yeah.
Yup! It took an outlier in performance consistency and the best batter ever on juice to surpass Ruth. One of the benefits of being the first to do something is that you have at least a few years where nobody knows what the heck to do to stop you, so you can rack up some crazy stats.
Funnily, it’s the opposite with Steph, since he had to invent the high volume three point shooter idea basically from scratch.
What makes you think this? It’s just going to be so many guys each making 3-4/game on the same team? Something else?
In 2020, I thought if Steph had another 2-3 good seasons, the record would be very near unbreakable due to the combination of volume and longevity.
Steph's current career average is 3.9 3PM per game. So a player will need to average at least 3.9PM over a fairly long career (currently ~33k minutes, 116th all-time).
I feel it's approaching unreachable.
Guys have hot starts to the season, there are lots of seasons where somebody is insanely hot and is on pace to end with a high number. It's just really really really hard to sustain and if you start missing a lot (which anyone will do) it's really hard to keep shooting them.
You wrote about Edwards "...if he falls off and only ends the year at 300 made." There are three guys in history who have made 300 plus threes in a season: Steph, five times. Harden, once (he also had a 299 season). Klay, once (301).
You wrote: "He'd have to make ~250/year for another 15 years, but that's doable, imo". There are 34 seasons in NBA history where someone has made 250 or more threes. 34! From everyone in history. Subtract Steph's 10, and everyone else has 24 total. And you think Ant can himself casually hit 250 a year for 15 years? You wrote "250 is not a high number for a high volume 3pt shooter that plays 70-75 games/yea". Who exactly are you talking about here, other than Steph? Because there are absolutely zero other players that you can describe this way. (New Splash teammate Buddy Hield is actually closest here, he has five).
The most threes Ant has made in a year to date is 215.
I hear ya... but there's a strong and continuing tendency for teams and players attempting more and more 3s. Ant's last 3 years have been 215, 213, and 190. 250 is only a relatively modest increase, tbh. Tatum is at 1,350, only 26, and he's almost guaranteed to attempt way more 3s than ever. 15 of the 100 highest 3PA seasons occurred last year, and 11 the year before. The strong trend is guys taking more 3s... so I think 250 is soon going to be as common as 200 is today.
That's fine, I look forward to your amazement in the future as you realize just how far Steph is still ahead of the league ;)
Like, maybe we should wait until Ant hits 250 *ONCE*. Better yet, let's see him string together four or five straight such seasons, to make an actual dent.
The breakdown on 250+ threes in a season:
10 - Stephen Curry
5- Buddy Hield
4 - James Harden, Klay Thompson
2 - Damian Lillard, Duncan Robinson
1 -Paul George, Luka Doncic, Donte DiVencenzo, Ray Allen, Dennis Scott, Kemba Walker, George McCloud
Yeah, but sort it by year and you get pre-2016: 5. Post 2016: 17 (2+ per year). It's becoming more and more common. Just last year, there were 4, including two newcomers.
This is the only time I’ve ever agreed with Harden.
He was asked if anyone would be able to catch up to Steph. His reply:
“I mean, I'm one of the most confident guys that we have in this league,” Harden said during his postgame press conference, mulling his answer. “But no. I probably won't catch Steph. And I don't think anybody will honestly. Just because… Steph started and he just… I don't know man…”