2024 NBA Draft Lottery *NOON* Pacific on ABC. Will GSW win the lottery? Plus open thread
2024 NBA Draft Lottery *NOON* Pacific on ABC. Will GSW win the lottery? Plus open thread
Suspense will be short. If GSW is NOT the first reveal at #14, they won the lottery.
Update
NBA announced lottery will be on ABC at 12 noon Pacific.
NBA press release
The 2024 NBA Draft lottery will take place in Chicago on Sunday, May 12 at 5:30 p.m. PACIFIC (ESPN), determining the draft order for the first 14 picks. The Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards have the highest odds of receiving the first overall pick, while the Warriors have a 0.7 percent chance of being the top draft choice. If the Dubs' pick does NOT land in the top 4, they will lose their pick to the Portland Trail Blazers.
NBA DRAFT LOTTERY
Sunday, May 12 |
Tipoff: 5:30 p.m. NOON PACIFIC
WATCH: ESPN ABC
Why Would Portland Get the Warriors’ Pick?
2019: Warriors trade 2024 First Round Pick (top-4 protected) to Memphis Grizzlies along with Andre Iguodala for Julian Washburn
2023: Grizzlies trade Warriors' 2024 First Round Pick (top-4 protected) to Boston Celtics in three-team trade that landed them Marcus Smart
2023: Celtics trade Warriors' 2024 First Round Pick (top-4 protected) to Portland Trail Blazers along with Malcom Brogdon, Robert Williams and a 2019 Unprotected First Round Pick for Jrue Holiday
How the Draft Lottery Works
Drawings will occur on May 12 to determine the first four picks, while the remainder of the “lottery teams” will select in positions five through 14 in inverse order of their 2023-24 regular-season records. The Warriors’ pick is currently projected to be the 14th overall selection due to being tied for the best record among non-playoff teams (46-36).
Previous Warriors Lottery Picks
The Warriors selected four players from this past season's roster in the lottery: Stephen Curry (pick 7, 2009 Draft), Klay Thompson (pick 11, 2011 Draft), Jonathan Kuminga (pick 7, 2021 Draft) and Moses Moody (pick 14, 2021 Draft). Kuminga and Moody won championships in their first season with the Dubs, while Curry and Thompson have won four titles with the franchise.
Since 2000, the Warriors have made two draft selections in the top four, selected current GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. with the third overall pick in the 2002 draft and center James Wiseman with the second overall pick of the 2020 draft.
Apricot’s Commentary
The 1st round pick will 96.6% likely go to POR
The tiebreakers give SAC a 3.8% chance to get a Top 4 pick and GSW now has a 3.4% chance to get a Top 4 pick. If the GSW pick lands in the Top 4, GSW keeps the pick in the 2024 Draft, and GSW will give up to POR a Top 1 protected pick in the 2025 Draft. If it does not land Top 4, then POR will get the 2024 pick.
So it’s debatable which outcome is better for GSW: a Top 4 pick in 2024, considered one of the weakest drafts in years, or a (likely middling) pick in the 2025 draft, considered a much stronger draft.
I personally think it would be great to win the lottery and take a chance on adding a good player right away.
You might ask why GSW gave up this pick in the first place.
It was incentive to MEM in 2019 to take Andre Iguodala’s contract, which allowed Kevin Durant’s planned free agency departure for nothing to be turned into a sign-and-trade for D’Angelo Russell. This allowed GSW to keep that salary amount available for transactions, and it eventually was moved to MIN in the legendary trade for Andrew Wiggins and a 1st round pick that became Jonathan Kuminga. This trade is arguably the difference maker that allowed GSW to win the 2022 NBA Championship.
Regardless, the 2nd round pick will be #52 with intriguing options
Up until recently, GSW had no second-round pick.
However, due to the ingenious Cory Joseph trade in Feb 8, Hollinger reported:
Much as the LA Clippers did earlier, the Golden State Warriors took advantage of the final year teams above the apron can use cash in trades to effectively buy a draft pick while also dumping Cory Joseph.
The Warriors sent the gobsmacking sum of $5.8 million to the Indiana Pacers to get the least valuable of the Pacers' three 2024 second-round picks (essentially either Milwaukee's or Cleveland's, likely to be in the mid-50s). In the process, Golden State saved itself about $8 million in tax penalties by offloading Joseph's $2 million contract.
The Pacers will also receive a top-55 protected second from Charlotte in 2025, which has little chance of converting as a real pick, but is basically just a small chit Indiana could use in a future trade to have "something" to offer from their end.
Technically, MIL was the worst pick and it was #53. However, PHI had their draft pick forfeited for free agency tampering, so #53 moved to #52.
If you are wondering what happened to the original GSW second round pick, it was traded on Jun 19 2019 to ATL for cash and the 2019 #41 pick which became… any guesses?… Eric Paschall.
Despite the contempt for the top-end talent of the 2024 Draft, I think there are numerous intriguing prospects in the second half of the second round, many of whom are falling due to being “old” (21+). And keep in mind that GSW just grabbed exactly one such prospect, the older Trayce Jackson-Davis at #57.
All future picks
From RealGM’s great tracking page of all GSW future draft picks:
All picks incoming
2024 second round draft pick from Milwaukee
Milwaukee's 2024 2nd round pick to Golden State (via Indiana) [Brooklyn-Indiana-Milwaukee-Phoenix, 2/9/2023; Golden State-Indiana, 2/8/2024]
2026 second round draft pick from Atlanta
Atlanta's 2026 2nd round pick to Golden State [Atlanta-Detroit-Golden State-Portland, 2/9/2023]
2028 second round draft pick from Atlanta
Atlanta's 2028 2nd round pick to Golden State [Atlanta-Detroit-Golden State-Portland, 2/9/2023]
All GSW picks outgoing
2024 first round draft pick to Portland
Golden State's 1st round pick to Portland protected for selections 1-4 in 2024 and 1 in 2025 and unprotected in 2026 (via Memphis to Boston) [Golden State-Memphis, 7/7/2019; Boston-Memphis-Washington, 6/23/2023; Boston-Portland, 10/1/2023]
2024 second round draft pick to Houston
Golden State's 2024 2nd round pick to Houston (via Atlanta) [Atlanta-Golden State, 6/20/2019; Atlanta-Denver-Houston-Minnesota, 2/5/2020]
2025 second round draft pick to Washington, Boston or Dallas
Washington will receive the less favorable of its 2025 2nd round pick and Golden State's 2025 2nd round pick; Boston will receive the Washington pick, the Golden State pick, Dallas' 2025 2nd round pick if conveyable, or Detroit's 2025 2nd round pick protected for selections 56-59; Dallas may receive, and Washington may receive an additional, one of the four (via Detroit to L.A. Clippers to Portland to Detroit; via Detroit's right to swap Golden State for Washington (via Brooklyn); via Boston's right to swap Detroit, Golden State or Washington for Dallas; via Detroit to Washington) [Brooklyn-Golden State, 7/7/2019; Brooklyn-Detroit-L.A. Clippers, 11/19/2020; Brooklyn-Indiana-L.A. Lakers-San Antonio-Washington, 8/6/2021; Brooklyn-Detroit, 9/4/2021; L.A. Clippers-Portland, 2/4/2022; Detroit-Portland, 7/6/2022; Boston-Detroit, 6/28/2023; Boston-Dallas-San Antonio, 7/12/2023; Detroit-Washington, 1/14/2024]
2026 second round draft pick to Oklahoma City
Golden State's 2026 2nd round pick to Oklahoma City (via Atlanta) [Atlanta-Golden State, 7/8/2019; Atlanta-Oklahoma City, 7/12/2023]
2027 second round draft pick to Washington
Golden State's 2027 2nd round pick to Washington [Golden State-Washington, 7/6/2023]
2028 second round draft pick to Portland
Golden State's 2028 2nd round pick to Portland [Atlanta-Detroit-Golden State-Portland, 2/9/2023]
2030 first round draft pick to Washington
Golden State's 2030 1st round pick to Washington protected for selections 1-20; if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Golden State will instead convey its 2030 2nd round pick to Washington [Golden State-Washington, 7/6/2023]
Next round of my attempt to whittle away these non Dubs playoffs: Insert NBA player X; Better Player or Broadcaster?
Can we go back to thinking the Gobert trade was terrible? He's nine years older than Ant, and roughly the same caliber of player as Walker Kessler. The Wolves bid against themselves and gave up Kessler plus not one, not two, but FIVE unprotected first round picks, any of which might have been used to pair Ant with a young star (or two) and help turn the Wolves into a dynasty.